According to the latest Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA®) Romania survey sent to HotNews on Tuesday, the main risks that could affect Romania in the next two years are the risk of armed conflicts between states and the risk of disinformation.
They are followed by the risk of cyber attacks. In second place are economic risks, and among them the risk of economic decline, the risk of sovereign debt default, and then the risk of inflation.
Climatic risks are placed last, among them the risk of extreme climate, as well as pollution.
Adrian Codirlashu, CFA – Vice President of the CFA Association Romania, notes: “Looking at the risk studies in the next two years, it is likely that the geopolitical risk in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe is not correctly assessed by the markets, and corrections may occur due to the development of the war in Ukraine. In addition, in the case of Romania, high fiscal uncertainty, as well as expectations of tax increases in the context of a high budget deficit, will have a negative impact on confidence in the economy in the next 12 months.”
The macroeconomic confidence indicator of the Romanian CFA Association decreased in January by 5.5 points to the value of 52.1 points. This situation was caused mainly by a decrease in the expected component of the indicator.
Expected inflation over the 12-month horizon (February 2025) declined year-on-year to average 5.57%, the lowest in 20 months. However, only 65% of participants expect a decrease in inflation in the next 12 months.
Regarding the development of prices for residential real estate in cities, the majority of participants, 48%, expect stability in the next 12 months. Also, 70% of participants consider the current prices to be overpriced, and 26% believe that they are priced correctly.
The forecast deficit of the state budget for 2024 is expected (the average value of expectations) at the level of 5.1%, the expectation of economic growth is 2.9%.
Public debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to rise to 53% in the next 12 months.
Source: Hot News
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