​The leaders of the PSD and the PNL have not yet managed to reach an agreement on the full election calendar for 2024. The Coalition has several scenarios for the unification of the elections, as well as the distribution of the sphere of influence at the local level, on the table. and the central level, starting from candidates at the local level and continuing with the highest positions of the Romanian state.

Political sources told Hotnews.ro that PSD and PNL leaders will hold a discussion with President Klaus Iohannis this weekend (before the Coalition’s official meeting on Monday).

The general framework and basis of the discussions between PSD and PNL starts with the organization of elections in 2024. The first scenario discussed and agreed upon in principle in the Coalition is combining local elections with elections to the European Parliament on June 9.

The first scenario: merger of MEPs with local ones – rates and calculations

Combining local elections with European Parliament elections on June 9 maximizes the percentages of both parties, mobilizing the electorate to vote for mayors. The PNL has a significant advantage as it has a chance to win second place in the European Parliament elections and gain 20% more than the AUR with the help of its own mayors. The second place in front of Simion’s party will be retained by Nicolae Chuke at the head of the party.

Traditionally, the elections to the European Parliament do not arouse the interest of the Romanian electorate, and in the last rounds of the European Parliament, the systemic parties used fireworks to stimulate Romanians to vote.

We will remind you that in the 2019 European Parliament elections, Klaus Iohannis initiated a referendum for justice, during the electoral struggle between the PSD led by Liviu Dragnia and the right-wing PNL-USR parties.

The PSD and PNL fear that the low turnout of their own electorate leaves room for AUR voters. According to internal calculations in both parties, the Social Democrats would have won the first place in the elections, but with a percentage below 30% somewhere around 27-28%, and the liberals would have less than 20%. Calculations show that the two parties will not have enough votes to form a stable government on their own.

On the other hand, George Simion’s party has a good chance to take second place in the elections to the European Parliament and get 10 MEPs.

The combination of European parliamentary elections with local ones brings mayors to the stage – the most important electoral agents of systemic parties. The logistics and organization of mayors mobilize supporters of the two parties and encourage voters to vote. The PSD has about 1,430 mayors and the PNL has 1,200.

It should be noted that AUR does not have mayors and strong organizations in the country.

Also, this scenario is beneficial for PSD, which strengthens its position as the first party in Romania with a percentage of 30% instead of 27-28%.

Scenario 2: Merger of parliamentary elections with the presidential round – bets and calculations

The combination of the parliamentary elections with one of the presidential rounds does not yet meet consensus in the PSD-PNL coalition.

The liberals want to combine the first round of the presidential election with the parliamentary one, as the mobilization for the vote will increase the chances of the NLP candidate (currently Nikolae Chuke) to reach the second round of the presidential election. This type of unification was used by the Government for the last time in 2004, when the President’s term of office was four years. The merger agreement is expected to take place sometime in late November.

• The coalition agreed on the election calendar for 2024: local elections will coincide with European Parliament elections, and the first round of presidential elections will coincide with parliamentary elections.

Instead, the Social Democrats propose to combine the second round of the presidency with the parliamentary one, since, according to their internal calculations, their presidential candidate (unofficially Marcel Čolaku) would have an advantage. In the PSD version, the unification of the second presidential round with the parliamentary round should take place no later than December 8.

The bone of contention is a presidential candidate

Another question for the Coalition is how the sphere of influence will be distributed both locally and centrally.

The main problem and misunderstanding is the presidential candidacy. The liberals want the presidential nomination and are willing to give the social democrats the rest of the administrative and executive power to get it. “PNL will not give up its candidacy for the presidency, even if the coalition falls apart,” HotNews.ro sources claim.

On the other hand, PSD leaders are putting pressure on Marcel Čolaka not to give up his candidacy for the presidency. It is currently unclear whether the SDP leader wants to participate in the presidential race. It is certain that within the PSD, local leaders close to Sorin Grindianu or Mihai Tudos insist that the party will provide a presidential candidate.

Cholaku is also facing pressure from Gabriela Firea to be nominated as the party’s mayoral candidate. The situation for the PSD leader is complicated in the context that Paul Stanescu, another strong player of the party, supports Gabriela Firea.

At the discussions, the liberals showed openness to rejecting the candidacy for the position of the capital mayor’s office and flexibility in the distribution of candidates for the positions of branch mayors.

“In the context of the public and internal pressure exerted by Gabriela Firea regarding the candidacy for the Capital, Marcel Colacu is interested in receiving additional nominations for the positions of mayors of sectors and may give up the position of mayor of Bucharest to the liberals. Sector 1, sector 2, sector 4 and sector 5 would be good negotiations for PSD,” PSD sources told HotNews.ro.

Also on the negotiating table between the PSD and the PNL are important positions that need to be divided: the president of the Chamber of Deputies, the president of the Senate, the head of the SRI or Romania’s proposal for the post of European Commissioner.

How would PSD and PNL split their candidacies in big cities

Another component of the negotiations was the distribution of candidates at the local level between city halls and county councils.

These days, at the negotiating table, there was also talk of candidacies for regional mayors, where PSD and PNL do not have a majority. According to HotNews.ro sources, Timisoara, Iasi, Cluj, Alba Iulia, Brasov, Constanta and Bacau are being discussed.

Thus, in Timișoara, PSD wants to support Alfred Simonis for the position of president of the district council, while Nicolae Robu may run for a new mandate as mayor. In Brasov, Gheorghe Skripcaru could run for mayor from the PSD, and Adrian Vestea for the district council.

The tandem of Kostel Alexe and Mihai Kirika would remain in Iasi. On the other hand, in Constanta, the mayor Vergil Kitsak remains for the new mandate, and in Cluj – Emil Bock.

Regarding the Bacau mayor’s office, the Liberals have been in talks with USR Mayor Lucian Visiteu, but according to HotNews.ro sources, he would reject the offer to join the PNL. At the same time, for the mayor’s office of Alba Iulia, the liberals made sure that the current mayor of the USR, Gabriel Plesha, would run under the PNL logo.

What PSD-PNL mutual understanding might look like

According to HotNews.ro sources, PSD and PNL will not run on joint lists in local or parliamentary elections, but each formation will have candidates, in the vast majority of cases, for positions they already hold, the rest from USR or PMP. have government positions to be shared and manage PSD or PNL depending on specific negotiations.

HotNews.ro’s sources say that to avoid a deadlock in the negotiations, the presidential candidate could be determined after the June 9 election through a protocol that would specify that the party that does not nominate a presidential candidate will be appointed prime minister. President of Romania.

We remind you that HotNews.ro explained that the stakes for the 2024 elections are huge, and PSD and PNL hope to consolidate their government based on a well-structured plan. In the context of the growth of extremist parties in Europe and the unstable situation in Ukraine, political leaders have an extended scenario involving President Klaus Iohannis. “In this European context, the Romanian political scene must be strengthened by isolating the extremist parties in the parliament (n.red AUR and SOS Romania) and preserving the PSD-PNL government. as? The PNL will retain the presidency, and the PSD will retain the executive power: the parliament and the government,” HotNews.ro sources claim.

The scenario can be applied after the elections to the European Parliament. Romania has the right to apply for four positions at the European Commission level: President of the European Council, High Representative of the EU, President of the European Parliament or European Commissioner.

President Klaus Iohannis is targeting one of these positions. The head of state will resign, and the chair from Kotrocheny will return to the chairman of the Senate Nikolae Chuke before the end of his term of office. From this position as interim president, Chuke will benefit from the increased visibility and exposure he needs in the prospect of running for president.

• Big stakes in joint elections: how PSD and PNL want to keep their power and cut off the momentum of AUR and Diana Soșoacă / All calculations made behind the scenes of the parties