Several high-ranking European militaries have voiced the possibility in alarming statements. Although the threat remains relatively remote, countries bordering Russia have nevertheless begun to raise their level of preparedness, Liberation reported, citing Rador Radio Romania.

Warnings continued throughout January. “We hear threats from the Kremlin almost every day. We must take into account the fact that Vladimir Putin may one day attack a NATO country,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned on January 19.

“Ukraine is only a stage, not the end of history. The war may reach Sweden,” the Swedish Minister of Civil Defense and Commander of the Armed Forces warned a few days ago. In neighboring Norway, General Eirik Kristoffersen believes his country is “running out of time” to strengthen itself against an unpredictable Russia. “We have a window of one to two years, maybe three, to build a solid defense,” he said.

The cooling-off period before the threat becomes more significant varies – Germany’s defense ministry experts say Europe has a window of five to eight years to prepare for an attack – but concern is growing, fueled by several factors. In Ukraine, the Russian military has been recovering since last year, after the embarrassment of 2022.

“After almost two years of hostilities in Ukraine, Russia’s combat capabilities have exceeded current impressions. The country is using revenues from hydrocarbon exports to transform its defense industry into a military one,” said a report by the German Council on Foreign Relations published in November.

“Maximalistic Statements”

“Russia may look for other areas of confrontation with its neighbors in the coming months, after the stabilization of the front in Ukraine. Tensions could rise in the Baltic Sea, the Arctic or the Caucasus to put pressure on the West. But I don’t see any immediate military threat,” explains Cyril Bret, a researcher at the Jacques Delors Institute.

The uncertainty that Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House could create also encourages Europe to strengthen its defenses and become less dependent on the American umbrella. According to an article published earlier this year by the German Bild magazine, European intelligence agencies fear a potential Russian attack in the winter of 2024-2025 if Trump wins the US election in the fall.

“It is difficult for me to understand the essence of such maximalist statements at a time when Europe is already facing many very real challenges. It seems to me that it is not necessary to wave the red flag of an open conflict with Russia so that the Europeans realize the very high geopolitical risk that Moscow represents,” says Cyril Brett.

“While it is appropriate to increase the vigilance of European states, especially in the north, I believe that Russian threats will take the form of destabilizing actions, not a direct military attack.”

“Ukrainians will buy us time”

In this uncertain context, one of the best ways Europe can protect itself is to continue supporting Ukraine. “The Kremlin is beginning to enjoy the victory over us, the West. If it thinks it can win in Ukraine, despite the political will of the United States and Europe, it will be even worse in the years to come,” warns Dara Masikot, a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. recently published analysis.

“Every time the Russians under Putin think they’ve won a conflict (Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014, Syria in 2015), they gain confidence in themselves and try bolder operations a few years later. By 2022, the Russians believed they were at an economic, political, and military disadvantage compared to NATO. If they win in Ukraine, exhausting the West, they will revise their assessment of NATO forces.”

His analysis coincides with that of Ukraine and its Baltic allies since the beginning of the invasion. “If the Ukrainians win, it will buy us time. They buy it with their blood, their lives, everything they have. But we don’t know how much more time they can buy for us,” recently explained Gabrielius Landsbergis, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania.

Military experts also call on the Atlantic Alliance to prepare for a potential conflict with Russia today. According to a report by the German Council on Foreign Relations, Russia will need only six to ten years to rebuild its armed forces after the end or freeze of the war in Ukraine.

European countries must anticipate so as not to be caught off guard. “NATO must rapidly increase its combat potential and clearly demonstrate this to Russia. She must understand that the conflict will be hopeless from the very beginning,” the authors write. In their opinion, it is all the more necessary to start preparations, since the European industrial machine is starting to take off slowly compared to the military economy, which is already partially working in Russia.

This was well understood by the countries most under attack, especially the Baltic States. At a meeting in Riga in January, the leaders of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania signed an agreement on the construction of a joint line of defense on the borders with Russia and Belarus. The first bunkers out of a hundred planned are to be built this year in Estonia.

“Ukrainian experience has shown that in a combat situation it is necessary to be able to quickly rely on concrete shelters, and not to build from earth and logs,” – emphasized the head of the operational department of the General Staff of Estonia, Tarmo Kundla.

At the same time, joint maneuvers of Lithuania and Poland in the “Suwalk corridor” are planned for April. Located on the border of the two countries, this region is between Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. It is considered one of Russia’s first targets if a war with NATO breaks out.

Further north, Finland, which shares a 1,300-kilometer border with Russia, has entered a “light war economy,” according to Mina Alander, a researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.

“The country has activated certain ‘production back-up’ provisions, which means that companies are producing on order from the armed forces to meet logistical needs,” she explains on X (formerly Twitter). Production covers everything needed to support long-term military operations, as well as ammunition: Finland is already producing five times more heavy artillery ammunition than it will by 2022.

Liberation (acquisition of Rador Radio Romania)