General Yuriy Baluyevskyi, the former chief of the General Staff in Moscow, presented several conclusions that can be drawn after almost 2 years of war in Ukraine, his observations may provide more clues about how the Russian armed forces may change tactics in the near future.

Baluyevsky presented his findings in a review he wrote for Algorithms of Fire and Steel, a book published in Russia about the impact of modern technology on the modern battlefield.

The book examines in detail the main types of weapons, systems, technologies and tactics that Russia has used so far in Ukraine, and military analyst Samuel Bendett publishes on his page for “X” is a summary of Baluyevsky’s conclusions after reviewing the article.

The Russian general notes that the “military special operation” launched by President Vladimir Putin on February 24, 2022, turned out to be an “unprecedented test” for almost all components of military art and military development – from tactics, operations and strategy, to the organization of military units and the testing of almost all types of non-strategic equipment and weapons.

“All this experience has not yet been understood by military and scientific experts. But it is already clear that the “operation” showed the inconsistency of numerous forecasts related to military topics, and the need to reassess the role and method of using different types of weapons,” says Baluyevsky, who was chief of the General Staff in Moscow from 2004 to 2007.

The former chief of the Russian General Staff talks about the “sticky situation”, as does the current commander of the Ukrainian army

He points to what General Valery Zaluzhnyi, the chief of the General Staff of Ukraine, also drew attention to in comments made last year after the failure of the summer offensive on Kyiv: the modern battlefield has become “transparent” on which both armies observe the actions of the military. another, and the element of surprise has almost completely disappeared.

Baluyevsky says that to overcome this “positional impasse” it is important to “observe the right trends” and “understand the patterns” associated with how they evaluate combat operations.

“First of all, modern heavy mechanized weapons suddenly switched to positional trench warfare instead of acting as highly maneuverable combat units, the pace of advancement on the battlefield looks like a snail’s pace even by the standards of the First World War,” states General Russian.

He notes that artillery, mainly long-range and highly accurate, has once again been placed on the pedestal of the “god of war”. “The key determining factor in battles and operations is the number of shells fired,” he claims.

Baluyevsky also notes the “resurgence” of the role of infantry in combat operations, noting that after World War II, the world’s major armies generally took a back seat to training soldiers and officers in this type of armed forces.

Military aviation showed its limits in the war in Ukraine

The Russian general also says that air defense systems have “achieved an unexpected triumph over military aviation,” which he says has not only lost the ability to operate en masse over enemy territory, but has also been forced to fly and choose its bases carefully. on its own territory.

“Finally, unmanned aerial vehicles quickly and undeniably conquered the airspace. The sky was filled with “clouds” of quadcopters and FPV drones hunting almost every foot soldier. The unmanned revolution has provided unprecedented transparency on the battlefield and has begun to crowd out artillery,” Baluyevsky claims.

“What ensures unprecedented transparency on the battlefield in Ukraine? A huge and constant number of means of reconnaissance and target identification, mainly unmanned or satellite. There is also a qualitative jump in the volume and speed of data received and transmitted with the help of these means,” explains the ex-commander of the Russian army.

He notes that these developments, combined with advances in electronic intelligence tools, cyber intelligence techniques and tracking enemy intelligence networks, have virtually eliminated the “fog of war,” a term used by military theorists to refer to the inherent uncertainty associated with the conduct of warfare. combat operations

Large-scale mechanized operations may become a thing of the past

Baluyevsky also claims that the tank belongs to a weapon whose role on the battlefield changed rapidly and radically during the war in Ukraine, and that the tank “became the main casualty of hostilities in the last two years — it was easy to spot and easy to destroy.”

The Russian officer also complains that the tank was “very vulnerable” to mines. He notes that the military command now has to answer some questions: “Can tanks be used en masse? Do they have the necessary protection? Do they have effective weapons to shoot at the enemy? Has the tank lost its importance as a main striking force and a means of breaking through enemy lines and maneuvering in the concepts of modern warfare?”.

He says that the solution to these problems must necessarily include protection against mines and kamikaze drones, and one of the solutions is the development of new, much stronger armor systems.

As for artillery, Baluyevsky notes that the main direction of its use is to increase the range and introduce high-precision guided munitions, which, according to him, will “inevitably” be adopted by all armed forces in the future.

Drones will play an increasingly critical role on the battlefield

The Russian general repeatedly returns to the topic of drones, saying that they have become a “headache” for air defense systems, which “were not ready to fight this equipment.” “Different classes of drones have become, perhaps, the main challenge and problem of air defense systems,” he notes.

“It must be admitted that such an exaggerated role of aerial drones was not predicted by military theorists, although some signs of this new trend were already visible during the war in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020,” Baluyevsky claims.

Another “radical change” the general observed during the war in Ukraine involved the transition from large combat drones in the early stages of the conflict to small and medium-sized aircraft, in many cases commercially produced.

He predicts that “FPV drones and small kamikaze munitions will become even more common, evolving in no time to become the weapon of the individual soldier. This means that tens and hundreds of thousands of small drones will be deployed on the battlefield in the coming years. Therefore, there will be an urgent need to confront them, starting from the tactical level of units,” he concludes.

Military analyst Samuel Bendett notes that Baluyevsky makes no direct reference in his analysis to artificial intelligence, automation or other developments in Ukraine’s advanced technological tactics and systems, and ignores the unprecedented role of civilian volunteer engineers who are responsible for most of the progress made. by Russia in the section on drones.

However, the general is highly respected in the Russian armed forces, and among the Russian military community his experience is considered far superior to that of some generals who planned the “special military operation”.

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