The entry into force of the new Customs Code of the Republic of Moldova on January 1, 2024 caused a violent reaction from the so-called authorities in Tiraspol. Finally, we also have justice, when companies from Transnistria must now pay customs duties to the budget of the Republic of Moldova, like any other Moldovan company. It is important to emphasize that this Customs Code has been approved since 2021, and the concern shown by the Transnistrian leaders can be interpreted as a reaction to the new realities regarding trade and customs relations, as well as the fact that they expect other measures to be followed in order to to cut off the levers of influence that the Transnistrian region has.

In response, Tiraspol threatened the possibility of imposing customs taxes on farmers from several villages of the Dubesar district who own agricultural land located along the separatist-controlled Rybnytsia-Tiraspol highway. The authorities of Chisinau reacted instantly and announced the support of farmers, in the event of the realization of this threat.

The self-proclaimed government of the left bank of the Dniester is beginning to understand that step by step there will be legal additions to the legislation of the Republic of Moldova, which will unify the rights and obligations of individuals and legal entities on both banks of the Dniester. . This is the new reality, and there is no going back. Next, the most urgent problem, which actually fuels the regime in Tiraspol, will be solved – gas in exchange for electricity.

Of course, the state of the Republic of Moldova is in a vulnerable position. Reintegration overnight is unlikely, only effectively blocking the economy on the left bank, but this option is unlikely from the point of view of how ready the institutions and the state budget are now to reintegrate a region separated from Maybe more than 30 years. In Moscow, they realize that the Transnistrian region is the greatest vulnerability of the Republic of Moldova. It is in this that Russia will achieve the greatest results in the coming months, especially in terms of state security.

In addition, a dangerous dynamic has been observed since the beginning of the year, with the Institute for the Study of War claiming that it is Russia that will organize “false flag” attacks in Transnistria to create the impression that Ukraine is engaged in sabotage. in the separatist territory of the Republic of Moldova in order to create conditions to justify the opening of a new front.

Undoubtedly, with the end of the war and the victory of Ukraine, it will be much easier to solve the Transnistrian problem.

If for the local elections, Russia mobilized significant financial resources and tried to influence the elections in Moldova through methods such as illegal financing of election campaigns, vote buying and disinformation campaigns. Then the stakes in the presidential election are huge, and if you add a referendum on joining the European Union, Moscow will be fully involved in the rounds, as we have never seen before in plans to disrupt the future of Chisinau.

Literally today, January 16, in the office of the OSCE in Tiraspol, talks between the Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration Oleg Serebryan and the representative of the Transnistrian side Vitaly Ignatiev began. Among the topics under consideration are new changes to the Customs Code, as well as issues related to neutral vehicle numbers and freedom of movement. But more importantly, it was explained to the Transnistrian side that the equality of the two banks of the Prut is the only option for Chisinau. This 1+1 dialogue is the only official communication channel and the only viable option at the moment.

Because it is obvious that the “5+2” initiative is unlikely to produce significant results in the near future, given the current geopolitical climate. The two main mediators, Ukraine and Russia, are effectively at war, while a third mediator, the OSCE, faces an existential crisis as it grapples with the larger question of Russia’s role in the organization.

Citizens of Moldova should understand that everything depends on the results of the end of the war between Russia and Ukraine. A Russian victory could lead to a significantly greater Russian presence in the region, which would have clear consequences for Transnistria. Conversely, Russia’s defeat could undermine the viability of independence and increase Transnistria’s dependence on Moldova and the EU.

The Transnistrian regime should ask itself which scenario it wants to follow. Reintegration in Moldova would offer some significant advantages, given its rapid convergence with the European Union. In this sense, the European integration process of Moldova could become a catalyst for the reintegration of Transnistria. –

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