Russia is preparing to launch a new offensive in the coming weeks when the ground freezes in southern and eastern Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War said in an analysis on Monday.

Numerous Russian sources claim that the army will launch a large-scale offensive against Ukraine, ISV notes.

Some sources believe that the offensive may begin sometime between January 12 and February 2, after the ground freezes and Ukrainian forces are “exhausted” from defending their positions in Avdiivka and on the eastern (left) bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region.

Russian literary critic Serhii Pereslegin argued that Russians should be more concerned about Moscow launching its offensive at the wrong time or making the same “mistakes” that Ukraine made during its 2023 counteroffensive, rather than a new Ukrainian offensive in 2024.

Pereslegin also expressed concern that Russia does not have enough men to mount the large-scale offensive it expects.

A well-known Russian media blogger argued that the number of troops on the front line allows Russian forces to conduct localized tactical maneuvers, but is unlikely to have significant operational success.

Weather conditions appear to be affecting ground activity on both sides. Ukrainian forces in the south of the country reported that Russian aircraft could not operate in the region due to frosty weather.

The Russian media blogger said that the frost is affecting the ground activities of Russia and Ukraine, as well as artillery and unmanned systems on the front, especially in the Kherson direction.

A Russian military correspondent said last week that freezing weather conditions were preventing Russian troops from conducting ground operations and advancing north of Verbovoy in western Zaporizhzhya Oblast.

Dmytro Rogozin, the former head of Roscosmos, Russia’s space agency, said the front line in the western Zaporizhia region was “buzzing like a beehive” due to the large number of Ukrainian drones, but Rogozin said Ukrainian forces were deploying six drones to strike each time. an important target in the western Zaporizhzhya region, and that the intensive use of Ukrainian drones complicates the rotation of Russian personnel.

ISW has previously assessed that sub-zero temperatures in Ukraine are now likely to limit frontline operations, but will create more favorable terrain for mechanized maneuvers as the ground freezes over the coming weeks.

ISW analysts believe that Russian forces will likely seek to maintain or intensify localized offensive operations across eastern Ukraine in an attempt to seize and hold the initiative, regardless of weather conditions.

The American think tank also estimates that Russian forces will not be able to make significant progress from an operational point of view.