Statisticians asked the business environment (about 8,000 managers from all sectors of the economy) what they expect in the coming months.

The conclusions look something like this: in construction, the number of employees will decrease, in trade – hiring, and in industry and in the service sector, employment will remain at almost the same level.

Instead, prices will rise in all areas. In industry and construction, growth will be moderate, on the other hand, in retail trade (managers working in this field say) price growth will be “accentuated”

Business sentiment has weakened amid expectations of upward pressure on wages and lower profits, according to the latest edition of the Confidex survey, also confirmed by the National Institute for Statistics.

If the business environment perceives the future as uncertain, they will make appropriate decisions: they will stop hiring, reduce production, and seek to maintain their profit margin.

The business environment looks not only at its own business, but also at everything that happens in the economy as a whole. They look at what is happening in the political, demographic, social environment or in the field of new technologies. Managers need to understand how the environment in which they generate income is changing and how government decisions affect their business. Social factors – our attitudes, values ​​and lifestyle – influence what, how, where and when we buy a product. They are difficult to predict, define and measure because they are very subjective things that change as people go through different stages of life.

Managers only control the internal business environment, which encompasses day-to-day decisions. They choose what materials to buy, who to hire or fire, what products to produce, and most importantly, to whom, how and where to sell them. Therefore, if they perceive the future for the business as uncertain, they will make appropriate decisions: they will cut back on a lot of hiring, they will return to production, and they will try to maintain their profit margin.

The economic forecast of the European Commission revised downwards growth forecasts

The European Commission’s economic forecast has revised down growth forecasts for both the EU and the eurozone, pointing to a slowdown amid high inflation. However, the forecast also predicts lower inflation in the coming months due to lower energy prices and a stable labor market.

The European economy will grow not by 1%, but only by 0.8%, the EC says. In Romania, local economists are talking about 1.8-2% growth this year. As for inflation, the European forecast predicts it at 5.6% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024.

In Romania, after inflation falls to 7.5% at the end of the year (BNR estimate), a package of fiscal measures will raise it again in the first months of 2024 to around 8-8.2%.