​With the onset of winter, the price of gas on European markets falls. According to Amsterdam Gas Hub TTFwhere benchmark prices are set at the European level, natural gas futures for January delivery fell below EUR 40/MWh to EUR 37-38/MWh, as in Qbeginning of October. Analysts say that these falls indicate high market confidence in a comfortable winter crossing.

On the gas market, winter is over before it even started

According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, gas storage levels are still very high at 94% of capacity, which is well above expectations given that EU countries were expecting 90% storage capacity at the beginning of November.

In addition, prices are also affected by the large number of liquefied natural gas supplies, according to Bloomberg. Imports of liquefied natural gas into Western Europe rose last month to their highest level since May, and the early days of December suggest that strong supply will continue into the future.

Bloomberg analysis shows that for the global gas market, winter is over before it begins. This comes amid concerns over gas shortages in both Europe and Asia, while industrial demand in Germany and China is low.

A downward trend in prices is still possible as winter approaches.

Prices are now nearly 90% below their 2022 highs following the Russian energy crisis.

European states managed to largely get rid of their dependence on Russian gas by diversifying their supply sources and increasing imports of liquefied gas from the United States and Qatar. Before the war in Ukraine, Russia exported 155 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe every year. In 2022, they fell to 60 billion cubic meters, and this year in the EU they expect their decrease to 20 billion cubic meters.

Prices remain limited in Romania

Regardless of what happens on the European markets, how much gas and electricity prices fall, the Romanian authorities want to maintain the compensation cap scheme until the spring of 2025. The government has no intention of conducting a price analysis, even if it did. To date, the capped compensation scheme has proven to be harmful, despite the many legislative changes it has undergone.

Suppliers, especially through trading activities, have made huge profits in 2022, the state has poured many billions of lei into them, there is no price signal in the market, the next years are surrounded by complete uncertainty, and consumers do not benefit from the lowest prices, as for example in Hungary and Bulgaria. Vice versa. As far as contract prices are concerned, Romania is one of the highest in the EU, and with limited prices, it is somewhere in the middle of the ranking.

So far, the state has paid out 22.4 billion lei to suppliers, and by 2025 there will be many more billions.

Photo source: Artur Widak/NurPhoto/Shutterstock Editorial/Profimedia