Ukrainian forces will face a “severe” winter and a difficult year as Western intelligence estimates do not point to significant movement on the front lines in the coming months, two Western officials and a senior U.S. military official told CNN.

In the short term, Western intelligence agencies expect Russia to increase its bombing of civilian infrastructure, including electrical installations, in an attempt to inflict even more suffering on civilians during the cold winter months, News.ro reported.

Progress on the battlefield has been slow in recent weeks, with the advance of Ukrainian forces limited to only one and a half kilometers in some areas and several kilometers in others. Western intelligence estimates suggest that the front line is unlikely to change much in the coming months.

Putin may even try a larger offensive after his victory in the presidential election in March

One of the factors hindering the Ukrainian counteroffensive is the lack of aviation to support ground operations. NATO’s promised F-16 fighter jets are not expected to arrive soon enough or in large enough numbers to change the dynamics on the battlefield for a long time, and some estimates suggest that it will take a long time next year for the military to arrive. enters into force.

Looking ahead to 2024, NATO allies fear that Russian President Vladimir Putin may attempt a larger offensive after his expected victory in Russia’s presidential election in March.

However, in Ukraine’s favor is the fact that any Russian offensive is expected to be met with Ukrainian resistance.

With the long-awaited counteroffensive in the south and east largely blocked by Russian defenses, Western officials note that the Ukrainian army has made significant progress in other areas. Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet using long-range missiles, including the UK-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missile and naval drones, pushed the Black Sea Fleet back tens of kilometers, opening up shipping lanes and allowing grain and other essential products for Ukraine’s economy to be transported.

“There is no doubt” that Putin is “trying to hang on” to the US presidential election

However, Western intelligence estimates warn that battlefield movements could stagnate by 2024, bringing the war closer to a “frozen conflict” that many observers say is favorable to Putin.

The Russian president is also believed to be factoring the 2024 US presidential election into his military plan. CNN reported in August that the U.S. still had no clear picture of Putin’s thinking or whether he was deliberately prolonging the war in hopes of a presidential victory for Donald Trump or the Republicans. But next year’s election remains a key factor that top national security officials, intelligence officials and Western diplomats say will influence Putin’s decisions in Ukraine, making it even less likely that the war will be resolved before the end of next year.

A US official speaking to CNN at the time said there was “no doubt” that Putin was “trying to hang on” until the 2024 election. Another source familiar with the information said “this is something of an elephant in the room” for the US, Ukraine and Europe.

The US Congress has yet to approve additional aid to Ukraine. “Shortening of the runway”

The harsh assessment comes as the White House is warning about the US’s ability to support Ukrainians without additional aid approved by Congress.

Amid ongoing negotiations in Congress over possible ways to fund Ukraine and Israel, as well as changes in border policy, the White House warned on Friday that the “track is shrinking” and that it will have a hard time supporting Ukraine without additional funding. approved by the end of the year.

“Again, as I said before, a lot of times the track is shortened. And we think we have until about the end of the year before it becomes very, very difficult to continue to support Ukraine. And the end of the year is coming,” said NSDC spokesman John Kirby, stressing that this funding is necessary.

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