Actions to mitigate climate change in Romania will require the support of the population, as they will involve an increase in consumer prices and/or taxes, the World Bank points out in a report for our country.

Many Romanians are concerned about climate change, but few are willing to pay for it

“The successful implementation of the new paradigm depends on the support of consumers, taxpayers and voters. This is especially important because Romania’s social contract is already strained: 63 percent of Romanians say they tend NOT to trust the national government, and 76 percent consider the lack of social rights a serious problem,” the document also states.

Many Romanians are concerned about climate and environmental change (climate issues are the fifth issue cited by Romanians, after health, corruption, infrastructure and education), but the number of those willing to pay to avoid damage to the climate and the environment is not very high.

Less than half (about 46 percent) of Romanian respondents would be willing to pay an amount equal to 1 percent of the country’s monthly GDP per capita (just over $1,000) to reduce the impact of climate change, and another 12 percent would pay half that amount. the amount is much less than the money needed.

The percentage of respondents willing to pay such an amount is somewhat higher among women and people living in densely populated areas, the authors of the cited report also note.

For the poorest families who heat with wood, the impact of heat pumps on their electricity bills will make them unaffordable

What else does the document prove:

• The residential and service sectors together account for nearly 40 percent of the country’s natural gas demand, 50 percent of electricity demand, and 74 percent of demand for heating services.

• Decarbonization will require the electrification of cooking appliances and the introduction of heat pumps for individual heating systems (preferably reversible heat pumps that have the ability to cool in summer); especially for the latter, innovative financing instruments will be needed, with a possible combination with grants, given the significant direct costs of these projects.

• For the poorest households currently heating with wood, the impact of heat pumps on their electricity bills could make them unaffordable, even if the installation costs were fully covered by grants.

• District heating, large neighborhoods and district heating systems for houses remain an important source of heating in Romania, although their number of users decreased by 85 percent to only 1.3 million people between 1992 and 2020.

• Renewable low-temperature heat from geothermal, solar, bioenergy and waste sources is widely available in many regions of Romania, but is still not fully utilized due to limited technical capabilities and the need to reconstruct and adapt existing infrastructure

Climate change in Romania will change the timing, frequency and intensity of rainfall

• Climate change in Romania will change the timing, frequency and intensity of rainfall. Romania already faces a dichotomy: on the one hand, it is already close to the threshold of water scarcity, including as manifested by the recent drought, and on the other hand, it is seriously exposed to the risk of flooding, with projected annual potential losses of up to almost €2 billion per year.

• In 2020, Romania had the highest percentage of the population (21 percent) without access to basic sanitation infrastructure, water is a critical element for low-carbon electricity generation (for both hydropower and nuclear power), the decarbonization of transport depends from the use of sea and river routes, and traditionally rain-fed agriculture increasingly needs irrigation.

• The need for Romania to dramatically increase the implementation of Integrated Water Resources Management (MIRA) is urgent.

The tendency of areas to absorb and retain heat (the urban heat island effect) is a particular problem, with Bucharest and Cluj experiencing three times more hot days than the surrounding rural areas.

Rising temperatures and increasing frequency of heat waves will pose other threats to the economy, people and infrastructure.

Urban climate projections show a significant increase in urban heat by 2050 (a 50 percent increase in the number of heat days in the high-emissions climate scenario), and an estimated 25 percent increase in deaths associated with these events. between 1991 and 2018. This effect is exacerbated by the tendency of built-up areas to absorb and retain heat (the urban heat island effect) and is a particular problem for the urban population (where much of the economic activity is also concentrated), with three times more hot days in Bucharest and Cluj than in the surrounding rural areas

Although climate change does not directly affect seismic risks, the two issues are linked, as Romania’s building stock currently generates 42 percent of total final energy consumption and is highly vulnerable to seismic risks.

In order to withstand the high seismic risk, almost 4 million buildings in Romania require repair or reconstruction

To cope with the high seismic risk and to benefit from energy efficiency improvements, almost 4 million buildings in Romania built before the 1980s (of which about 95 percent are single-family houses) located in areas subject to medium seismic distress/increased repair or reconstruction and restoration

Romania still has one of the highest levels of poverty in the EU. Between 2015 and 2020, the share of Romanians living at risk of poverty (i.e. less than USD 6.85 per day in the 2017 CPR) fell rapidly from 27.8 to 10.7 percent due to high employment markets in the national levels and EU levels and wage increases. income and pensions.

But Romania’s poverty rate remains one of the highest in the EU, and inequality is glaring. The Gini coefficient of equivalent disposable income was 34.3 in 2020 (rising to 32 percent in 2022), one of the highest among EU member states, while the impact of social transfers on reducing poverty and inequality is one of the weakest in the EU bloc . In the conditions of uneven distribution of economic well-being, “The Tale of Two Romanias” is preserved. Regional differences in income and provision of services are significant.

Poverty is highly concentrated in rural areas, where approximately 70 percent of Romania’s poor live. The World Bank summarized the general evolution of the country’s development under the phrase “The story of two Romanias”: one urban, dynamic and integrated into the EU, the other rural, poor and isolated.

The poor have limited access to productive employment opportunities and have difficulty benefiting from economic growth

Populations at the bottom of the income distribution have limited access to productive employment opportunities and find it difficult to benefit from the country’s economic growth. Poverty and inequality also have a strong ethnic dimension, with the Roma population facing deep gaps compared to non-Roma groups across all development indicators.

Almost half of the bottom 40 percent do not work, another 28 percent work in subsistence agriculture, and only 41 percent of Roma adults have paid work as their main activity. Social inequality is increasing, and vulnerable groups (for example, the Roma population) suffer from many forms of deprivation. In addition, the gender gap in labor force employment is the largest in the EU

The quality and quantity of available labor and capital, as well as slow productivity growth, limit the country’s potential and international competitiveness.

The population is shrinking due to emigration and aging, and widespread inactivity among women and youth is reducing labor force participation.

Low-income households rely heavily on subsidized fossil fuels for heating, with few sustainable alternatives available.

Skills shortages and skills mismatches – already the most common obstacle for firms – are becoming more acute, with vacancies doubling between 2013 and 2019. Despite a thriving ICT sector, the basic digital skills of the Romanian population are the lowest in the EU. A huge shadow economy, estimated at 21 percent of GDP (EC 2019), creates additional challenges

Climate change mitigation will disproportionately affect regions where polluting activities are concentrated (such as the coal industry), as well as certain occupations, skills or income groups through structural changes.

The impact of extreme weather events caused by climate change (such as floods and droughts), the potential losses from mitigation measures and the capacity to adapt are unevenly distributed among the population of Romania.

For example, low-income households rely heavily on subsidized fossil fuels for heating, with few or no sustainable alternatives available.

Many poor and vulnerable populations, particularly the Roma population, live in informal settlements and/or experience severe homelessness, and are disproportionately exposed to natural disasters, heat stress and disease. Half of Romania’s female workforce is not formally employed, and Romania has the highest percentage of informally employed in agriculture in the entire EU-27 bloc, so women risk being disproportionately affected by the transition.

See the full report here