
Argentina’s Javier Millais vowed in his first speech as president-elect that there would be “no room for half measures” to revive the country from its worst economic crisis in two decades. But if he fails to cash in on political alliances, half-measures may be the only thing he can achieve, Reuters writes.
A radical libertarian outsider leads a coalition with limited representation in Congress. As such, he will have to negotiate with his new conservative allies and a skeptical Peronist opposition to advance his plan.
The economist, a relative newcomer to politics, won a historic victory in the South American country’s presidential runoff on Sunday, breaking the hegemony of the two main political coalitions for the first time in a decade amid inflation approaching 150 percent and rising poverty.
He promised a tough plan for the economy, including closing the central bank permanently, abandoning the peso in favor of the dollar, shrinking the size of government and privatizing state-owned companies such as energy giant YPF.
However, these plans will face opposition, and Miley will have a weak position in Congress.
His Liberty Advances bloc will have just seven seats out of 72 in the Senate and just 38 out of 257 in the Chamber of Deputies.
“Miley will need a realignment of alliances to push legislation through Congress. Otherwise, he will not be able to rule through the legislature,” said local political scientist Raul Timmerman.
While Miley can use emergency executive orders in some cases, most legislative changes would require a majority, at least 50 percent, of congressional support.
His coalition also has no regional governors or mayors, which is important in a strong federal system where the provinces have a lot of power. Senators work closely with their regional governors, and sectors such as education and health are mostly managed at the provincial rather than federal level.
“Mila’s government will certainly have to rely on its political allies first,” said Federico Aurelio, who runs consultancy Aresco. “And then she will have to conduct a dialogue with the entire political spectrum.”
Miley said Sunday night that he welcomed “all good Argentines” to his project, but his campaign did not explain how it would work outside of political alliances and frequently criticized other parties ahead of the vote.
What are his chances of success? “Negotiate”
Miley is likely to face strong opposition from the defeated Peronist coalition, which will retain many elected representatives in both houses of Congress.
Peronists are unlikely to support Miley’s proposed changes, including revisions to health care, education and pension systems.
However, Miley forged an uneasy alliance with key members of the conservative bloc Juntos por el Cambio (Juntos por el Cambio), including former conservative president Mauricio Macri and former candidate Patricia Bullrich. This will be the key to unlocking certain projects.
Negotiations are already underway that could affect the composition of his final cabinet.
“They are negotiating,” a source from the “Together for Change” bloc told Reuters about the chances of its officials joining the cabinet, which will take office on December 10. Together for Change, which does not support Milei, will have 94 deputies in the lower house and 21 in the upper house.
“Government consolidation will be a huge challenge,” said analyst Mariel Fornoni of the consulting firm Management & Fit, who added that it would be logistically difficult to negotiate with opposition mayors and governors.
“The first thing I think is that he will have to understand the rules of the political game. And that’s something he’s not used to,” the Reuters analyst said.
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Source: Hot News

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