Romania’s economy this fall grew by just 1% (compared to last fall), confirming the “fatigue” of the main engines that fueled gross domestic product.

For the whole year, estimates by specialists (from the country and from international financial institutions) are in the range of 1.8%-2.2%, depending on the used horse models. The main reasons are inflation, external economic instability and domestic fiscal policy (oriented towards populist measures in the pre-election year).

Under the influence of new tax measures, the business environment expected a slowdown in the economy

According to the latest published results of the CONFIDEX S2 2023 survey, Romanian managers’ confidence in the economy fell in the second half of this year to 48.1, an average level close to the level recorded at the beginning of last year (47.8). from Impetum Group.

The fall in confidence is taking place against the background of new fiscal measures and expectations of a slowdown in the national economy. The most pessimistic are agriculture (45), industry (47.4), construction and trade (both with 47.8). At the opposite pole, the most optimistic sectors are energy (50.7), IT (50.4) and services (49.8).

BNR: GDP dynamics overestimated to values ​​close to 2%

In its latest inflation report, the BNR estimates the economy will grow by just 2% this year. “Recent industry events confirm the tendency of the economy to slow down. These events reflect, on the one hand, the simultaneous weakening of the economies of Europe’s external partners under the influence of Germany’s indicators, which are significantly lower than expected, and on the other hand, the restraining effect of previous supply shocks, as well as related to the normalization of monetary policy. However, in Romania, the consequences of the fiscal consolidation process will be visible, especially during 2024. Taking into account the unfavorable events at the beginning of the year, including a temporary reduction in population consumption in the first quarter, overall, GDP growth has been overestimated to values ​​close to 2%,” the Report says.

Some key figures

• In the period 1.1 – 30.IX.2023, compared to the period 1.1 – 30.IX.2022, industrial production decreased by 5.1%

• Private consumption (as measured by retail trade turnover) slowed sharply, registering a modest increase of only 25 in the first 9 months. A big part of this slowdown is that it helped us from a trade balance perspective, because consumption was driven by imports, we were basically feeding the GDP of the economies from which we were importing goods.

• Permits for the construction of residential buildings fell by almost 25% in 9 months of this year compared to the first months of 2022.

• Only construction works remained, which increased by more than 13% in 9 months.

• Over 8 months, the total turnover of the industry (domestic and foreign market) increased in nominal terms by 1.4%

• Registrations of new cars – both for individuals and for the transportation of goods – fell by about 3% this fall compared to the third quarter of 2022.

review

REVIEW

As a result of the revision of the gross series by inclusion in the quarterly series of the assessment of the gross domestic product for the III quarter of 2023, a seasonally adjusted series is listed (quarters related to the period 2021-2023), the volume indices are revised in accordance with the second preliminary version of the gross domestic product according to II quarter of 2023, published in press release no. 261 of October 12, 2023, as amended:

• – reviewed the results of the 1st quarter of 2021 compared to the 4th quarter of 2020. from 100.7% to 101.0%

• – revised the results of the II quarter of 2021 compared to the I quarter of 2021. from 100.3% to 100.1%

• – reviewed the results of the IV quarter of 2021 compared to the III quarter of 2021 from 100.4% to 100.3%;

• – the results of the 1st quarter of 2022 compared to the 4th quarter of 2021 were reviewed. from 102.7% to 103.1%

• – revised the results of the II quarter of 2022 compared to the I quarter of 2022 from 100.3% to 99.9% ;

• – reviewed the results of the III quarter of 2022 compared to the II quarter of 2022 from 100.8% to 100.9%

• reviewed the results of the 1st quarter of 2023 compared to the 4th quarter of 2022 from 99.0% to 99.3%
  

• – revised the results of the II quarter of 2023 compared to the I quarter of 2023. from 101.7% to 101.3%