All over the world, concerted efforts are being made to reduce the expected effects of global warming by reducing the use of fossil fuels and carbon dioxide (CO₂). The goal is to achieve “zero” emissions in the near future. This will not happen. Significant use of fossil fuel resources will continue not for a few years, but for decades. CO concentration₂ in the atmosphere will continue to increase. The greenhouse effect is permanent and cannot be reversed by political action.

Note: Article published on October 21, 2023 (Why Global Warming is Inevitable) and translated with permission of the author by Konstantin Cranganu. David Deming is a geologist, geophysicist and professor at the University of Oklahoma.

There is a problem of ignorance of mathematics or inability to manipulate numbers. People do not understand the magnitude of the amount involved in the Earth’s carbon cycle. People are encouraged to reduce carbon emissions by driving less, eating less meat, using less energy and recycling. We might as well try emptying the Pacific Ocean with a thimble. Efforts by state governments will also have little effect. California has mandated that all new cars sold be electric vehicles by 2035. In the state of New York, the use of natural gas in stoves and ovens has been banned. Even if fully implemented, such regulations would not have a significant impact on emissions. California, with a population of 39 million people, emits CO2 annually₂ about 300 million tons. That sounds like a big number, but it’s less than one percent of total global CO emissions₂less than 0.001% CO₂ which is already in the atmosphere and about 0.0002% CO₂ stored in the oceans.

Year after year CO emissions₂ continues to grow steadily. Coal is responsible for increasing CO₂ than any other fossil fuel, and the use of coal continues to increase worldwide. The utilization rate is increasing, not decreasing. Although renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power are the fastest growing category, their net contribution to the global energy balance remains small at around 7-8%. For decades, fossil fuels provided about 80% of the world’s energy. Fossil fuel use will not reach zero in the foreseeable future. Energy creates human prosperity. Life expectancy, literacy, education level, and wealth are strongly correlated with total energy consumption. And when it comes to providing energy, fossil fuels have four big advantages: they are relatively cheap, reliable, abundant, and concentrated. In contrast, renewable energy sources such as wind and solar are diffuse and intermittent. If the wind is not blowing or the sun is not shining, the electricity production drops to zero. Storage in batteries is not enough by many orders of magnitude. Fuel may be free, but the means to capture and transmit energy are neither cheap nor sustainable. We have no technology to replace fossil fuels, and no foreseeable path to this imagined future. The limitation is not political, but physical.

Even if there were a technological path to net zero, the political obstacles are insurmountable. A common area, such as the atmosphere, will be exploited and degraded if not controlled by coercive means. Altruistic appeals to conscience are ineffective. While the US and other countries are making huge efforts to cut emissions, China continues to expand its use of coal, and still by a lot. In 2022, China advanced the construction of more than 100 coal-fired power plants. India, currently the most populous country in the world, also continues to increase its use of coal. Both India and China have committed to phase out coal in the future. But coal resources are huge. At current rates of consumption, the world could continue burning coal for hundreds of years. Commitments to reduce coal use in the future are nothing more than empty promises, likely to be forgotten under the irresistible temptation of cheap and convenient energy. The reasons for using coal today are compelling and will not change in the future. A few days ago, Germany announced that it would restart more coal-fired power plants, a direct admission that its ambitious efforts to move away from fossil fuels have failed.

There is no way back. The transition to mechanical and man-made energy began in the Middle Ages, when Europeans first began to use wind and water power on a large scale and developed mechanisms such as the crank to transmit and regulate power. The industrial revolution of the late 18th century was the culmination of centuries of social change and technological development. The modern world has become completely dependent on a complex network of machines that mostly run on fossil fuels. People no longer have the necessary means for self-sufficiency. We no longer live on farms, we no longer keep animals, we no longer grow food, and we no longer have reliable networks of extended family and reliable friends.

The current political focus on carbon mitigation is more than unnecessary because it diverts attention and limited resources that could be devoted to adaptation. Unless the world accepts reality, billions of dollars will be wasted in futile and misguided attempts to stop the rampant. Funds that could have been put to good use to reduce human suffering and restore the natural environment will be squandered through arrogance and ignorance. The anthropogenic greenhouse effect can be slowed, but cannot be stopped or reversed. However, the future does not have to be hopeless. Nuclear power promises a sustainable, low-carbon economy. But we must recognize the physical limitations of energy technologies imposed by the laws of physics. – read the entire article and comment on Contributors.ro