High budget deficits, expectations of higher indirect taxes and confidence in the economy continue to decline, CFA Romania economists say. They also raised their expectations for the level of the budget deficit this year.

Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, compared to the previous task, expectations for exchange rate stability have slightly improved: 73% of participants expect the lei to depreciate over the next 12 months (compared to the current value), compared to 94% in the previous month.

Thus, the average value of expectations for the 6-month horizon is 4.99 lei per euro, while for the 12-month horizon the average value of the expected exchange rate is 5.07 lei per euro, values ​​decreasing compared to those recorded in the previous exercise.

As for the development of prices for residential real estate in cities, 39% of participants expect them to decrease, while 58% of participants expect stability in the next 12 months. Also, 62% of participants believe that the current prices are overstated, and 27% believe that they are valued correctly.

Expected deficit of the state budget for this year: the average value of the forecast is 5.7%, which significantly increases compared to the previous period.

In 2023, the expected real GDP growth was 2.8%. Public debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to rise to 54% in the next 12 months.