Russian ports and ships in the Black Sea, including oil tankers carrying millions of barrels of crude oil to Europe, could be justifiably attacked by the Ukrainian military as part of its efforts to weaken Moscow’s military machine, a senior Kyiv official told Politico , following two recent attacks on Russian ships. And Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed on Tuesday that Ukraine will respond with attacks on Russian ports and ships if Moscow prevents Kyiv from transporting its grain through the Black Sea, writes News.ro.

“Everything that the Russians are moving back and forth in the Black Sea are our real military targets,” Oleh Ustenko, economic adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi, told Politico, explaining that such actions are a response to Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Agreement by sea and carrying out a series of missile strikes on Ukrainian grain elevators and ports.

“This story began with Russia blocking the grain corridor, threatening to attack our ships, destroying our ports,” Ustenko said. “Our maritime infrastructure is under constant attack,” he said.

The Black Sea is an even more dangerous place

Over the weekend, Ukraine declared the water area around Russian ports on the Black Sea a “military risk zone” from August 23 and “until further notice.” In the zone there are such important Russian ports as Novorossiysk, Anapa, Gelendzhik, Tuapse, Sochi and Taman. This is causing insurance rates for ships to skyrocket and could jeopardize one of Russia’s main export routes for oil and petroleum products — critical to providing the Kremlin with enough money to continue its war against Ukraine, Politico said.

“After this weekend, the Black Sea looks like an even more dangerous place for international shipping, and it was already very dangerous,” said Byron McKinney, director of S&P Global Market Intelligence. “Many ships simply don’t go to this area anymore. There is almost no insurance. Where there are insurance policies, they are very high and will only grow,” the analyst noted.

On Saturday, Russia’s federal maritime agency Rosmorretsyflot announced that the Russian oil tanker Sig had been hit – in an attack attributed to Ukrainian forces – while sailing near the Russian-occupied Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea. “The tanker was hit in the area of ​​the engine room, near the waterline, from the starboard side, probably as a result of an attack by a marine drone,” Russian officials said.

The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine stated that as long as the Russians “terrorize peaceful Ukrainian cities and destroy grain, dooming hundreds of millions of people to starvation,” there will no longer be “safe waters or peaceful ports (for Russians)” in the Black Sea. and the Sea of ​​Azov”.

Zelensky: Ukraine will respond to Russia in the Black Sea

Echoing those statements, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi also intervened on Tuesday and announced in a video posted on the president’s website that Ukraine would take retaliatory measures against Russia in the Black Sea to ensure that Ukrainian territorial waters are not blocked and that Ukraine can import and export of grain and other goods.

“If Russia continues to dominate the Black Sea, outside its territory, block or shell us again, launch missiles at our ports, Ukraine will do the same. This is a fair protection of our opportunities, of any corridor,” Zelenskyy said. , quoted by Reuters. “We don’t have many ships. But they must clearly understand that at the end of the war they will have zero ships, zero,” the president said.

At a press briefing with journalists from Latin American countries, it is not clear when it took place, which he convened in his office, Zelensky called on Russia to stop shelling Ukrainian ports with missiles and drones and to allow trade, Reuters notes.

Russia blockaded Ukraine’s Black Sea ports at the start of its invasion in February 2022. The blockade is strangling Ukraine economically, as its pre-war economy was largely export-led, with steel and grain being its main exports.

Exacerbation of the oil crisis?

Last month, Russia shipped 59 million barrels of crude oil, a third of its total exports, using the strategic Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, according to intelligence firm Kpler. Of these exports, 32 million barrels went to EU countries.

The Port of Novorossiysk also handles other fuels such as fuel oil, diesel and oil, in addition to grain for the world market.

Novorossiysk also ends the oil pipeline of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which delivers up to 1.3 million barrels of oil per day from Kazakhstan, from where it is sent to world markets.

At the same time, an important naval base of the Black Sea Fleet is located in Novorossiysk.

Last week, a Ukrainian naval drone struck and damaged the Russian amphibious assault boat “Olenegorsky Hornyak” in the port of Novorossiysk.

Risk to civilian vessels

The proximity of Moscow’s military to commercial ports could increase the risk to civilian vessels, warns Alexis Ellender, a commodity analyst at Kpler, writes Politico.

“Those who work in the shipping markets say that Ukraine will obviously not attack commercial shipping, but there is a risk that installations or ships will come under crossfire, and they carry a significant amount of trade through Russian ports on the Black Sea,” he said. .

“Many Greek ships operate in this trade, and although some shipowners do not want to transport Russian cargo, there is a whole international mix,” the analyst explained.

The growing risk the conflict poses to busy international waterways will mean tough decisions for the shipping industry and for traders tempted to keep buying cheap Russian oil under the $60-a-barrel price cap set by the G7 last year, Politico said.

“However, there are still Greek and Turkish tankers operating in the area carrying Russian oil within the constraints of the price cap, and there were quite a few foreign ships in the area where the drone attack on Novorossiysk took place,” McKinney said. “The most interesting question that will come out of this is whether they will be able to hold back in the future when their multimillion-dollar assets are now at risk from a stray missile or something else,” the analyst said.

Kyiv: The West must realize that things are not as usual with Russia

The International Chamber of Shipping, which represents shipowners and ship operators, declined to comment on whether rising tensions in the Black Sea would prevent its members from doing business there.

But, said Oleg Ustenko, the official representative of the Ukrainian president, Western companies must realize that they can no longer do business with Russia as usual.

“From a legal and moral point of view, it is absolutely unjustified that these ships continue to deliver Russian oil,” he said.

“Now it is economically acceptable. But the risk will be extremely high. Under these conditions, insurance prices will rise significantly, which will make these deliveries unprofitable. The ship and the crew will be at a huge risk,” warned Zelensky’s economic advisor.

“Are big companies that sell insurance, that are engaged in financing, ready to continue such activities when they see these images from the Black Sea?” Ustenko asks. “A useful time for those who are still trying to close their eyes and pretend that nothing really happened, to understand – not a word,” he concluded.

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