President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for military support, and the West responded promptly. The basis was prepared for the spring offensive, which marked the final stage of Ukraine’s efforts to return the lost territories. However, the weeks without the delivery of tanks and modern weapons to Ukraine gave Russia precious time to strengthen its defenses.

British military analyst Sean Bell notes in Sky News that Zelensky’s delay in starting the operation may affect the effectiveness of the offensive.

Fighting continued throughout the winter, but poor weather conditions limited the ability of tanks and heavy weapons to operate off-road, so any winter offensive was called off.

Instead, Zelenskyi used the winter period to convince the international community that Ukraine was ready to face a much larger army, and that it only needed the right military equipment to meet the challenge. As a result, the West provided the necessary support.

Russia managed to strengthen its defense

Ukrainian troops needed time to familiarize themselves with new military equipment from the West. At the same time, Ukraine recruited and trained tens of thousands of recruits, and a significant part of this training took place abroad.

However, the delay in starting the offensive allowed Russia to strengthen and expand its defenses, thereby disrupting Ukraine’s plans.

The destruction of the Kakhovskaya dam this week protected the Russian flank in the Kherson region from a possible Ukrainian assault.

The Ukrainian military probably anticipated this situation, as the Russians had planted explosives around the dam since their occupation began early last year.

There will be significant losses, but they are normal for an offensive

Preparing for a major military offensive is complex and requires secrecy, the evaluation of multiple options, and the inclusion of concealment plans.

The Ukrainian military has shown extraordinary skill in pushing back Russian troops from a large part of the previously occupied territory of Ukraine, and there are hopes that the Ukrainian counteroffensive could be decisive.

However, the West must recognize that there is a risk that Ukraine will face resistance to Russian forces. After all, Russia is a superpower and has significant resources, says Sean Bell.

The analyst believes that Russia managed to strengthen its defenses, and Ukraine expects to suffer three times more losses in the offensive than the Russians in the defense.

And the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) understands that casualties are “inevitable in any military action,” especially in offensive operations, and that they are “not indicative” of the outcome of a counteroffensive.

The loss of Western equipment at the beginning of the counteroffensive “is not an indicator of future progress.”

The American think tank said: “It is important not to exaggerate the impact of initial losses of Western or any other equipment, especially in penetration battles against prepared defensive positions.”

The ISW said yesterday that Ukraine appears to have engaged “only a fraction of the large pool of available forces” in the counteroffensive.

It is very likely that Russia will inflict significant casualties among Ukrainians, and if the balance of power shifts in Russia’s favor, it may decide to launch a counteroffensive to take advantage of Ukraine’s vulnerability, Bell writes on Sky News.

• Read also:
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