“What would have happened if there had been no civil war in England? What would happen if there was no American Revolutionary War? What if Ireland had never been divided? What would have happened if Great Britain had not entered the First World War? What would happen if Hitler attacked Great Britain? What would have happened if they had defeated the Soviet Union? What if the Russians won the Cold War? What if Kennedy had survived? What would have happened if there was no Gorbachev?”

Mircea MorariuPhoto: Personal archive

A series of 9 British historians, all of great and recognized professional standing, formulate possible answers to these questions in almost 450 pages of the second edition in Romanian (Editura PolisherIasi, 2022) book What if…? Essentially, a convincing attempt to rehabilitate counterfactual history coordinated by Niall Ferguson. The authors have chosen a set of key themes of world history from the period between 1647 and 1997, which they analyze, turn them on all sides, proving that things could have been different than they actually were. And this is by no means the fruit of a sick fantasy. Or out of control. 9 historians do not write Hollywood scripts. They start from the premise that there was always a small detail that marked a change in the situation, and thus prove that determinism in history is not even remotely infallible.

Traditionalist/Traditionalist/Determinist historians, not always necessarily old-fashioned, believe that counterfactual history is nothing more than board game or false problem. A true professional researcher of the past would have, in their opinion, the goal and duty to try to recognize and set forth as clearly, coherently, and honestly as possible the sequence of events that led to a particular denouement. Thinking, assuming, building alternative scenarios is nothing but a pure game of the mind. And if we really can and want to learn something from history, then these lessons must be drawn from what happened in the past.

Ferguson never advocates giving back at once to any pure fantasy play. No one, not even a serious researcher who would venture into the tempting space of the counterfactual, would hypothesize that in the midst of the French Revolution, people could have grown wings, and under these new conditions, everything would be unjustified. Yes of course. long introduction book means a broad and documented intrusion into the history of philosophy (I pay attention, for example, to the commentaries on the works of Marx and Engels) or literature (especially the novels of Tolstoy and Dostoyevsky), made in order to argue the usefulness of the counterfactual version. Epilogue by the same token, Niall Ferguson is repeatedly called upon to continue asking questions like those on which the book is built.

But Ferguson is not only a theorist of the subject, a supporter of the counterfactual method, but also proves the validity of the method through a practical contribution. His research Kaiser European Unionintended as an answer to a question What if Britain had stayed away in August 1914? I find this one of the most difficult in the volume. And J. C. D. Clarke, author of the essay entitled British Ireland. What would happen if home rule came into effect in 1912makes a call in favor of contractual history in the last lines of his intervention: “The counterfactual presupposes well-defined alternative paths whose clear and consistent character can be evoked as the historian projects them into a non-specific future”

As for me, and taking advantage of the fact (advantage?) that I am not a historian, but only a consistent and passionate reader of history books, I can say that I was most interested in the sections dealing with moments of chronology. 20th century Therefore, I refer to the already mentioned contribution of Neil Ferguson and Andrew Roberts Hitler’s England. What would have happened if Germany had attacked Great Britain in May 1940? in which the author also offers an answer to the question whether, in the event of German occupation, England would have a government similar to that of Vichy, Teaching Nazi Europe. What would happen if Nazi Germany defeated the Soviet Union written by Michael Burleigh, Stalin’s war or peace. What would have happened if the Cold War had been avoided? Thanks to Jonathan Haslam.

The final two studies in the volume demonstrate that illegal history can help dispel some myths. In the first under the title Continuation of Camelot. What if John F. Kennedy had lived? , Diane Koontz debunks the myth that John F. Kennedy, who was considered a fairly mediocre president, decided to withdraw American troops from Vietnam. This is in case he gets a second mandate. In the second, 1989. Without Gorbachev. What would happen if communism did not fall? Mark Almond not only has a very critical opinion about the last president of the USSR, but also shows that the collapse of communism caught American President George W. Bush, who lacked the scale and determination of his predecessor Ronald Reagan, and the leaders of Western Europe by surprise. How can we say that the West did not really want the reunification of Germany. Helmut Koll himself, the reunification chancellor, was initially reluctant. Read the full article and comment on Contributors.ro