
Scope Ratings downgraded France’s credit rating outlook to negative, raising questions about French President Emmanuel Macron’s efforts to spur economic growth and reduce debt. The rating agency announced that it has changed its outlook to AA due to easing risks from the implementation of fiscal and financial reforms.
The change comes after Fitch downgraded France’s credit rating to AA- from AA last month, saying high public debt and the risk of a political deadlock following pension reform protests could hamper future economic reforms.
The change highlights the challenges facing France in its quest to cut a budget deficit that has soared during the pandemic and has been shrinking slowly as the government has spent huge sums to curb energy prices.
While Scope is not one of the largest rating agencies, it is recognized by the European Securities and Markets Authority and has applied for recognition under the European Central Bank’s credit rating system.
Following Fitch, Scope also downgraded its credit rating – Macron’s plan to reduce debt did not convince.
Standard & Poor’s may also take action on France’s rating in a week. The French government has unveiled a long-term plan to tame the deficit and put its debt on a downward trajectory to support economic growth, lift support measures for the energy sector and keep spending growth below inflation.
However, the country’s fiscal agency, HCFP, appears to be cautious, noting that the plans are based on economic forecasts that appear overly optimistic and inflation estimates that appear to be somewhat low.
Scope says it could downgrade France if the public debt ratio rises steadily due to insufficient fiscal consolidation or if the growth outlook deteriorates significantly.
France is facing high spending pressure and rising borrowing costs, and has an “unequal track record of fiscal consolidation.”
It also argues that the Macron government’s lack of a parliamentary majority and social unrest increase the risk that economic reforms will be delayed or weakened.
Source: Kathimerini

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