This past weekend, Volodymyr Zelensky was a figure of honor at the G7 summit in Hiroshima, where he secured new pledges of military aid from the West, notable among them Joe Biden’s conversion and his decision to go ahead with the F-16 in Kiev. . At the same time, however, the Ukrainians acted coolly on the battlefield with the fall of Bakhmut after 10 months of siege, in the longest and deadliest conflict of the war. Coincidentally, the fall of Bakhmut was recorded on Saturday, May 20, exactly one year after the fall of Mariupol, one of the greatest Russian military successes to date.

The Ukrainian side tried to downplay the losses, arguing that Bakhmut, which had a population of 75,000 before the start of the war, was of little strategic importance. But if so, then why did the Ukrainians spend months sacrificing so many of their soldiers, and why did the president himself rush to cheer them up by visiting the Bakhmut Front, which showed something like the Ukrainian Stalingrad? Officials in the Ukrainian military leadership have warned that the fall of the fortress would create better conditions for a Russian offensive to be launched into the two largest cities, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, which are key to capturing the entire industrial region of Donbass.

The scene changed just two days later when the war shifted to Russian soil on Monday and Tuesday.

Invasion of Belgorod

Dozens of paramilitaries ousted from Ukraine crossed the border and, supported by drones, invaded the Russian border region of Belgorod, where they seized roadblocks and laid siege to government buildings. The Russians had to bring in troops and attack helicopters to drive out the invaders. The psychological impact was significant, especially since they were preceded by a similar, albeit smaller, invasion of the neighboring Bryansk region in March, bombings of Russian bases in Sevastopol, Crimea, and, of course, a drone attack on the Kremlin. .

Both Kyiv and Washington have denied any responsibility, saying it was the initiative of Russian “patriots” who oppose the war and want to overthrow Putin. But everything is not so simple. Responsibility for the attack was claimed by two organizations of Russian self-willed exiles in Ukraine, who, together with the Ukrainian army, are fighting against their country. The first of these, the Legion of Freedom in Russia, was created by Ilya Ponomarev, a former State Duma deputy (he was the only deputy to vote against the annexation of Crimea in 2014) and a citizen of Ukraine since 2016.

The second organization is called the “Russian Volunteer Corps” (RDK) and is described by the most authoritative Western publications as purely pro-Nazi. It was formed by the notorious Denis Kapustin, who grew up in Germany, participated in the clashes on the Maidan in Kiev in 2014, collaborated with Ukrainian neo-Nazis and especially with the Order of Azov, while advocating an ethnically homogeneous Russia that would leave the Caucasus and other “non-Russian” regions. Characteristically, the Europeans banned him from entering the Schengen zone precisely because they consider him a dangerous neo-Nazi.

“The Thousand Bite Strategy,” a guerrilla war unleashed by the Ukrainians to drive the Russian bear crazy before the counterattack begins.

Even more disturbing is that the said “Russian patriots” entered Belgorod with Western equipment. According to international agencies, they had several Humvees and at least three MRAP armored vehicles (two of which fell into the hands of the Russians), similar to those used by the Americans in Iraq and Afghanistan. Recently, the Biden administration offered Kyiv hundreds of such vehicles. In addition, the raiders left behind six Swedish AT4 rocket launchers and other weapons systems. Given these facts, it is obvious that the operation could not have been organized without the help of the Ukrainian special services and special forces, while it is very difficult to imagine that it was not under the control of the Americans.

Feint

Moscow explained the Belgorod operation as Zelensky’s psychological distraction from the loss of Bakhmut. This may have played a role, but the main one is what the French newspaper Le Figaro called “a thousand bite strategy to drive the Russian bear crazy.” With guerrilla operations on the border, artillery strikes and drone strikes deep into Russian territory, the Ukrainians are forcing the Russians to disperse their armed forces in an arc of more than 1,000 kilometers. This is what is known in military terminology as a “combat formation” and is a preliminary stage in view of the expected Ukrainian counterattack.

True, while Kyiv and its allies have been talking for months about the upcoming spring counteroffensive, spring is ending, and we have not yet seen a counteroffensive. However, Ukrainians cannot afford to wait any longer. As Gideon Rahman wrote in the Financial Times, the West tells them publicly, “We will support you for as long as it takes,” but privately adds, “Until it takes too long.” The Western politician referred to by the observer told him that “Ukrainians consume in hours what (weapons and ammunition) we produce in weeks.”

In the U.S., Biden faces a tough election battle as his popularity ratings are at their lowest point yet Trump remains in the lead no matter what. In Germany, Scholz’s Social Democratic Party is battling for second place with the Greens and the far-right AfD, well behind the Christian Democrats, according to polls. And Poland, a key supporter of Ukraine, is imposing a ban on the import of Ukrainian agricultural products, is increasingly offended by Ukrainian immigrants and is quarreling with Kiev over historical open accounts between the two neighbors.

big moment

With that in mind, Zelenskiy is bound to launch the counterattack he has long been preparing, however risky, to demonstrate, with some tangible success, that generous Western aid is in place. . Of course, the Russian army has been covering its positions for months with numerous lines of defense, but concern remains, judging by the recent warnings of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of Wagner’s private army, about the risk of annihilation that a revolution and civil war would bring in Russia itself. I wonder what kind of game this foreign personality is playing, publicly demanding that the Minister of Defense and the Chief of the General Staff of Russia be court-martialed when several people are in prison, saying one cent of what “Putin’s cook” is free to pronounce.

What role does Yevgeny Prigozhin play anyway?

For years, Kremlin friend and businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin operated in the dark, making his fortune through government contracts. At the same time, he supported the infamous “online troll factory” that was at the forefront of Moscow’s efforts to influence elections abroad.

But in recent months, as Prigozhin’s mercenary army, the Wagner Group, has taken the brunt of the fighting in Bakhmut, the controversial businessman has come to the fore. His frequent and sharp criticism of the Kremlin and top regime officials has led many to speculate that Prigozhin harbors political — and even presidential — ambitions, according to a report by US-based Radio Free Europe.

Igor Girkin, who played a central role in the takeover of parts of eastern Ukraine by pro-Russian elements from 2014 to last year, said last month that the battle for the post-Putin Kremlin had begun. “Prigozin enlisted the support of powerful forces,” Girkin said.

“Putin’s Chef”

Prigozhin, 61, was born in Leningrad, like Putin, and owes his rise to his close relationship with the president, many calling him “Putin’s chef” thanks to his catering company that organizes Kremlin banquets. In 1981, he was sentenced to 12 years in prison for house robberies with accomplices. He was released from prison in 1990, a year before the collapse of the USSR.
He first met Putin in the early 1990s when he was trying to infiltrate the casino business. Putin was then chairman of the commission on gambling. “The current power of Prigozin comes from Putin himself. For some time he carried out special missions for the President. He had the ability to solve problems in ways that Putin’s inner circle didn’t use,” says Russian journalist Andrey Zakharov.

“However, its importance should not be overestimated. If tomorrow the Kremlin withdraws its support, Prigozhin will again be the owner of a restaurant in St. Petersburg and nothing more. All of his wealth came from government contracts. It is completely dependent on the state,” says Zakharov.

The point is… Litvinenko?

“Once Putin feels that Prigozhin has presidential ambitions, something could happen to him,” says Ukrainian analyst Leonid Svets, suggesting that the head of the Wagner group could suffer the same fate as ex-agent Alexander Litvinenko, who was poisoned by radioactive polonium in 2006. . in London by Russian FSB officers. “For now, Prigozhin is playing the role that Putin wants. After all, the Kremlin needs someone who will name the commanders in chief and the Minister of Defense, or whom Putin will choose as idiots, ”says Svetts.

Mark Galeotti, a professor at the University of California, London, wrote that Prigozhin’s behavior is indicative of how Putin manages the elite. “It favors mutual suspicion and cannibalistic rivalry. While this helped him stay in power for two decades, such tactics are dangerous in times of war when unity, discipline and solidarity are needed,” Galeotti says.

Prigozhin could also play the role of scapegoat as Russian officials try to shift the blame for battlefield failures. “What we see today is the search for those responsible for failures. This is well understood by Prigozhin and all members of the government’s inner circle,” says liberal St. Petersburg politician Maxim Reznik.

Sledgehammer

In November 2022, a video was posted on a social media page associated with the Wagner Group showing a deserter mercenary being killed with a sledgehammer. Prigozhin praised his fighters for punishing the “traitor”. While the gruesome images shocked the world, the image of the sledgehammer has become an integral part of Prigozhin’s brand, highlighting that violence is now a part of Russian political culture. In December, masked protesters threw sledgehammers at the entrance to the Finnish embassy in Moscow.
The sledgehammer has become a symbol of Russia’s frantic search for “traitors” and “enemies” both inside and outside the country, as well as Putin’s Manichaean approach to Russian society, divided into those who wield a sledgehammer and those who receive its blows.