With the prospect of five more years of coexistence with “unreliable” Erdogan in the Turkish leadership, Western capitals are trying to come to terms, according to an extensive report by the Financial Times on Wednesday, 11 days before the second and decisive round of elections. presidential elections in Turkey.

From the first paragraphs of the British newspaper article, one can see disappointment in the impending dominance of the Islamic ruler of the neighboring country on May 28, with an extensive enumeration of his … sins, including the exploitation of immigrants in February-March 2020.

Characteristically, Eric Edelman, the former US ambassador to Ankara, commented on what he calls the Americans’ troubled relationship with the Erdogan regime: “We will have a very unreliable ally whose policies will be driven by needs and desires. person, he says.

Characteristically, the 69-year-old Turkish president has spent most of his term drifting from one international crisis to the next.

The article states that “In the past five years alone, Erdogan has seen his country hit by US sanctions over the jailing of an American pastor and the purchase of a Russian air defense system, threatened to expel 10 Western ambassadors and sent tens of thousands of refugees to the border with Greece, promising to “open the gates” to Europe. On Saturday, the day before the first round, he accused his opponent Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu of conspiring with US President Joe Biden to defeat him without providing evidence.

No one is under the illusion that if Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu wins, much will change, the FT notes, but the change could be for the better: “Even if any new government is unlikely to make significant changes to foreign policy and the official claimed that there would be “a much more positive atmosphere” after several years of public struggle.

It is even emphasized that “in the West, Mr. Kilychdaroglu is treated with great benevolence, they like him,” the same official says. Instead, he added, “their feelings for Erdogan ‘bordered on hatred’.”

The British article notes that the first international test for Erdogan after his re-election will be the admission of Sweden to NATO due to disputes over Kurds on Swedish soil.

He adds that “some are concerned that the rise of Turkey’s anti-Western ultra-nationalists in Sunday’s parliamentary elections could force Erdogan to further delay the process. He can push for concessions from the US, possibly in favor of Ankara’s plan to modernize its F-16 fighters, which was rejected by Congress.”

On the other hand, Turkey estimates that the attitude of Europeans towards the Turkish leader in 21 years may become tougher, now that the possibility of strengthening his internal popularity if he opposes Westerners will not be appreciated.

Ilke Toygur, a professor of European geopolitics at the Carlos III University in Madrid, warned that relations could deteriorate further if Western countries abandoned the restraint they showed last year: “They held back because they did not want to become material for a presidential campaign. Erdogan,” he said. “But if he wins the second round, they will have no reason to stop.”

There is, of course, the risk of a complete turn of Turkey to the east, since, as the experienced Turkish diplomat Alper Choskun points out, the Russians and Chinese seem to have a better understanding of the Turkish mentality.

Source: Financial Times.