With different hopes and fears they enter N.D. And SYRIZA in the last stretch of the pre-election period, focusing on the percentage that the first party will gain, as well as the width of the difference between them.

At the same time, the prime minister Mrs Mitsotakis And Al. Tsipras they are closely watching the tough fight being waged by the smaller party formations ahead of the showdown next Sunday, as the “points” scored by the parties approaching the 3% limit and entering parliament will be decisive, in terms of not so much of the first, but also of the second round, which determines the measure of self-confidence in elections dated 2 July.

difference range

From all the polls of the last period, it follows that a week before the elections, the ND. maintains a secure lead in the polls over SYRIZA, so it would be a surprise if the two main parties were vying for the lead. However, the difference, which will be recorded on the evening of May 21, is of decisive importance. Taking into account the limits of statistical error and using the distribution model of the undecided – depending on which side they are closest to – N.D. (according to the latest Pulse survey for SKAI) can range from 32.1% to 37.9%, and for SYRIZA from 25.7% to just over 31%. Obviously, if N.D. will move to its high limit, it will enter the safe trajectory of self-sustainment in view of the second election struggle. On the contrary, if the ND approaches its lower limit and SYRIZA approaches its high limit, the goal of self-reliance will go away, and perhaps the next elections with a new electoral law will take on the character of a derby.

Assemblies

In the light of the above, the important “keys” for Megaro Maximos and Komunduru are the degree of mobilization of their electoral base and the processes in the so-called gray zone. According to information, a week before the opening of polling stations, N.D. and SYRIZA have clear scope for further consolidation as they are around 70%, while Kumunduru has a bigger problem as he should have more momentum as an opposition. It is indicative that before the European elections of 2019, the ND coalition, which ultimately won with confidence, reached 80%, and SYRIZA – about 60%. Also, a source of concern is the approach of the swingers, who (again according to Pulse), moving at high levels, don’t seem to put ND at the center of their selection. and SYRIZA by arranging a showdown with the elements regarding free voting. In fact, in a poll conducted by Alco (for Alpha), 23% said that “the simple proportionality system to be applied in the elections provides an opportunity for protest voting.”

Using the distribution model of the undecided, depending on which party choice they are closest to, N.D. can range from 32.1% to 37.9%.

At the same time, the scale of abstention and the situation in Turkey after today’s elections are issues that may to some extent affect the outcome of the upcoming confrontation. The level of abstention, which is primarily in favor of the first party, cannot be reliably assessed because, as experienced sociologists report, those who move in this direction usually do not respond to polls. Also, if Turkey’s border polls are expected to be accompanied by tension and instability, they may draw citizens’ attention to foreign policy and security issues where N.D. has a comparative advantage over SYRIZA.

Battle 3%

Finally, considering that PASOK moving steadily around the double-digit percentage and KKE about 6%, the interest of Megaros Maximos and Koumoundouros is concentrated after the decision of the Supreme Court on the formation of Kasidiaris on the speeches of smaller parties, taking into account the second vote – if, as expected, the government does not appear. from Sunday’s competition: And that’s because the larger the number of parties that will be excluded from parliament in the elections on July 2, the lower the bar of self-confidence for the first party will be.

Given that potential Kasidiaris voters don’t seem to be “moving” en masse to a particular area, the question arises:

– Her last performance Greek solution and his Day25, which fix, especially the first, downtrend in the last period and move by 3% and 4% respectively. As the saying goes, if two parties show a low flight in Sunday’s elections, even if they go over the 3% barrier, they could be pushed further into a polarization scenario that will prevail in the second election, and the next parliament may not pass. to be eventually six-party, bringing self-confidence closer.

– Progress of four other parties, Plevsis Eleftherias, National Creation, ANTARSYA and NIKI, which also show up in opinion polls with percentages of around 1% (Pulse). Their final performances matter both because of the sheer amount of self-confidence and because they can “cut” or “give away” votes to ND. and SYRIZA. However, while the dynamics of such small parties are difficult to determine in opinion polls, the attention of opinion pollsters has mostly focused on NIKI, which appears to be “competitive” with Mr. Velopoulos’s party.