A poll conducted on Thursday by opinion polling firm Konda showed Turkish President Recep Erdogan trailing his rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu by more than 5 percentage points in the voter turnout in this Sunday’s presidential election, Reuters reported.

According to the poll, Erdogan has the support of 43.7 percent and Kilicdaroglu at 49.3 percent of voters, results that suggest the presidential election will need a second round to decide the winner. If he makes it to the 2nd round, it will take place on May 28.

The poll results reinforce the idea that Erdogan faces the biggest challenge to his power in the two decades he has ruled Turkey, largely in line with others who see Kilicdaroglu, the candidate from a six-party opposition alliance, as the front-runner.

The poll, conducted on May 6-7, rates the other two candidates, Sinan Ogan and Muharem Ince, with 4.8% and 2.2% of the vote, respectively. Konda has already said that most of his voters are leaning towards Kılıçdaroğlu, the leader of the Republican Party of Turkey, for the second round of the election.

Polls predict a second round of presidential elections in Turkey

The Metropoll poll also shows that Turkey will have a runoff in the presidential election, with Kılıçdaroğlu winning 49.1% of the vote and Erdogan expected to win 46.9% in the first round. The same survey identifies the leader of the opposition as the favorite of the 2nd round: 51.3% intend to vote.

But political analyst Hakan Akbas, managing director of an Istanbul consulting firm, says Erdogan appears to be on track to get what he hoped for: a chance to face his opponent in a runoff.

“Given the earthquakes and the economic crisis, it would be a success for him. Now the result of the parliamentary elections is even more important. If we have a divided parliament, Erdoğan will appeal to the voters to choose stability over chaos, with which he will lead a coalition of 6 parties,” he explains.

A poll conducted by Konda puts Erdogan’s ruling coalition at 44% of the vote, ahead of the opposition alliance, which would only get 39.9% of the vote.

How could Erdogan try to convince voters after being cornered from all sides

The pro-Kurdish HDP party, which currently supports Kilicdaroglu, is expected to play a crucial role in forming the future ruling coalition. According to the Konda poll, the HDP, which is running under the banner of another party because of the threat of being barred from the election by a court order, will get 12.3 percent of the vote, leaving Erdogan and his allies in the minority.

“There is no doubt that Erdogan is facing a majority that wants change, and that includes young people,” said researcher Asli Aydintasbas of the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank.

“The only question is whether people believe that Kilicdaroglu is an agent of change. Even if he wins by a margin or not, I think the Erdogan era is over,” she adds.

“Turkish society is ready to move on. And, unfortunately, President Erdoğan did not leave behind a model of institutional governance,” she added.

Konda, which publishes the only pre-election survey, polled 3,480 respondents in 35 provincial centers in Turkey. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.2% with a confidence level of 99%, according to the polling company.

In the latest desperate bid for new votes, Erdogan this week announced a nearly 50 percent pay rise for hundreds of thousands of Turkey’s public sector workers.