In the days leading up to elections in Turkey, everything remains open. The latest polls may “see” Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu win, however Recep Tayyip Erdogan he showed himself to be “too strong to die”. According to these data, Politico characteristically reports: “Don’t envy whoever wins the elections in Turkey. The winner could immediately leave the economic path of “strong winds”.

During the first decade of Erdogan’s 20-year rule, Turkey experienced an economic boom, thanks in part to manufacturers and exporters from the Anatolia regions who supported the ruling AKP party. Growth averaged over 7% per year from 2002 to 2007. was once Erdogan’s biggest boast.

In the second decade of his reign, the tide turned as the president took full control of monetary policy and insisted on his unorthodox theory that high interest rates cause inflation. Prices are out of control and discussions about the cost of basic food, from onions to cucumbers, figure prominently in the run-up to the May 14 elections.

Erdogan insisted that his government had solved Turkey’s food price problems, saying, “There is no problem with onions, potatoes or cucumbers in this country.” Annual inflation reached a record high of 85.5% in October last year and was just over 50% in March. The Turkish lira has fallen to 19.4 per dollar from around 6 per dollar at the beginning of 2020.

Failures and the “reservoir” of technocrats

Erdogan has made it clear that he wants to pursue a new economic course after the elections. In April, he tried to form a team under former economic chief Mehmet Simsek, an economist who was investor favorite during the first period of his reign.

Simsek turned down Erdogan’s offer to join his cabinet, saying he was not looking to return to an active political role. At the same time, most economists worry about where Erdogan’s talent pool might be drawing from, stressing that his recipe after victory will be “one of the same.”

Erol Temaz, an economics professor at the Middle East Technical University in Ankara, doubts that Erdogan’s new government “will have qualified personnel who can solve these problems at the lowest possible cost.” There is no sign that the new government will abandon the current practices that have led to problems with growth.”

What if the opposition wins?

Even if the opposition wins, the course of the economy is not secured. Selva Delmirap, professor of economics at Istanbul Koç University, believes that if the opposition wins, which would mean a return to a more orthodox financial approach, interest rates could exceed 30% to fight inflation.

She argued that a key challenge for the new government would be “to establish confidence both at home and abroad” to give the economy room to maneuver.

Murat User, a former advisor to the Turkish central bank who now works for GlobalSource Partners, told Politico that Turkey needs comprehensive stabilization and deflation program. “The opposition should create a very authoritative economic group as soon as possible, which should work quickly and smoothly,” he stressed.

Maintaining political stability in a diverse six-party coalition may prove to be the biggest challenge for the opposition. Asher says he is optimistic, but warns that “an internal struggle could bring Erdogan back at any moment.”