Estimates and forecasts are presented in black and white in the Global EV Outlook report, in which the agency makes an initial assessment of electric vehicle sales worldwide, as well as possible scenarios for the next few years, both from the perspective of electrification and from the perspective of supply chains and production.

Electric cars continue to gain popularity

In 2022, global sales of electric vehicles will exceed 10 million units, accounting for 14% of all registered vehicles, compared to 9% in 2021 and 5% in 2020. As always, China led the market (60%), followed by Europe (15%). and the USA (8%). Several developing countries also performed well, such as India, Thailand and Indonesia.

And in 2023? Despite the difficult economic situation, this year looks even better than 2022. After 2.3 million registrations in the first quarter, Around 14 million electric cars are expected to be sold worldwide by the end of the year, which is 35% more than in the previous year. Thus, the market share will increase to 18%, thanks to tax incentives for purchases and a sharp increase in oil prices.

In the long term, according to IEA estimates, by 2030 zero-emission cars will account for 35% of global registrations. China will remain in the lead (40%), followed by Europe (25%) and the United States (20%).

Next comes battery production

Can production follow? Demand for batteries increased to 550 GWh in 2022, up from 330 GWh in 2021 (+65%). But production is growing at the same rate, and following this trend, it will meet all the required capacity in 2030 and even in 2050.

Alternatives to lithium have also increased, notably with new LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate) batteries or completely lithium-free batteries such as these new sodium batteries currently in development.

SUVs continue to evolve

Which segments will be successful in the future? In 2022, SUVs continue to dominate. 60% of electric models sold were SUVs in Europe. It must be said that the offer of electric cars is mainly concentrated around this body, especially among our European neighbors. In France, the Peugeot e-208 continues to perform well, even if the Tesla Model Y regularly disrupts the hierarchy.

“In 2022, the number of electric car models available is about 500, more than double the number available in 2018”– the report says.

Note, however, that manufacturers will offer other SUV alternatives in the coming years, such as Volkswagen with its upcoming ID.1 and ID.2 or Renault with its electric R5.