Global commodity trade this year will fall well below historical growth trends, held back by geopolitical tensions and economic pressures such as inflation, Russia’s war in Ukraine, monetary tightening and financial market uncertainty. This is reported World Trade Organization based in Geneva, adding that it forecasts a 1.7% increase in merchandise trade in 2023 compared to 2022. According to a recent report from the organization, this is an improvement over a 1% growth estimate in October. Last year, this figure was 2.7%, which corresponds to a 12-year average historical trade growth of 2.6%. Looking ahead, the WTO expects a softer recovery next year than previously expected. Growth in merchandise trade for 2024 is now 3.2% compared to the previous forecast of 3.5%. The WTO warned that this forecast for the near future still largely depends on the course of the war in Ukraine. “The outlook for trade is very bad, although not as bad as we really feared a year ago,” WTO chief economist Ralph Osa said in an interview.

The international body also said that North America will be the driving force behind trade in 2023, with growth in merchandise exports expected to rise by 3.3%. Global output is expected to grow by 2.4% this year, slightly below the previous WTO forecast of 2.7%. The biggest threat to trade prospects will be a food crisis that will cause mass starvation, as well as famine in low-income countries. “Rich countries should be alert and alert to recognize the harbingers of such a crisis and take early action to prepare for it,” the international organization said in a report. Other major risks include a resumption of inflation, a sharper-than-expected slowdown in major economies, and a further escalation of geopolitical unrest. The slowdown this year follows a strong year in 2002, when the value of global merchandise trade rose 12% to $25.3 trillion. dollars, benefiting in part from their high world prices, according to the report. This is almost a third higher than the level of 2019, which was before the pandemic.