Hot winters threaten Europe’s rivers – and energy security
A relatively mild winter in Europe helped avert an energy crisis last winter, but the warm climate itself is now threatening the energy system in other ways.
“At the moment, we are in a more comfortable position than we would have expected at the start of winter: gas prices are down more than 80% from their August highs and storage levels are more than double those recorded at the same time last year. past. ”, Gergely Molnar, a gas analyst at the International Energy Agency (IEA), told DW.
“But caution is needed,” he added.
European and global gas markets remain fragile. “Any exogenous risk can destabilize them. This year, there is not much flexibility in the system,” explained Molnar.
Demand for gas in the European Union fell 13% year-on-year in 2022, the highest on record. Meanwhile, electricity generated by hydroelectric dams, which is made from water flowing through turbines, has seen an 18% drop in 2022, according to an analysis by the IEA. Without that drop, Europe could have saved even more gas, a necessity after Russia, a major producer, cut off flows to the bloc last year.
Less hydropower means more fossil fuels
The drop in hydroelectric production has led to an increase in gas consumption, Molnar said. Historically, hydropower is Europe’s second largest source of renewable electricity. It supplied 17% of the EU’s electricity in 2020, according to Eurostat.
Currently, the amount of water in European reservoirs is almost 15% higher than levels recorded in 2022, despite a dry winter in France and little snow in the Alps, says Molnar.
“But water reservoir levels can fluctuate significantly,” he explained. “There is a lot of uncertainty around hydropower production.”
The International Hydropower Association (IHA) says significant investment is needed for water facilities to support the energy transition, while also acting as climate buffers and adaptors. “The need for flexibility at the grid level will only increase with the emergence of solar and wind technologies,” Alex Campbell, IHA’s head of research and policy, told DW. New infrastructure can help manage floods and summer droughts, he added.
Water temperature threatens nuclear power
Lower water levels and higher water temperatures during summer can also influence nuclear power production, as river water is often used to handle nuclear waste heat discharge.
“If the temperature of the rivers exceeds certain levels, it can affect the nuclear fleet. We saw this last year, but also in previous years, both in France and Belgium,” said Molnar.
Rivers are also central to transporting coal. “Once Rhine levels drop, it can cause logistical problems for coal plants, but coal operators often have inventories, so low water levels don’t immediately translate into problems,” the IEA analyst said.
thaw hard to predict
These long-term trends demand attention and a deep rethink of energy systems, says Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). January 2023 was the third hottest January on record in Europe, but that alone wouldn’t mean much, Buontempo told DW.
“2022 was one of the eight warmest years,” he said, “and the other seven were in the last eight years. Winters in Europe are getting warmer and there are consequences.”
Accounting for melting snow requires an element of predictability in the energy field as it accumulates in the winter and becomes available in the summer. But over the past 30 years, the thickness of ice on Europe’s glaciers has thinned by an average of 30 metres. The amount of snow, which includes snow on glaciers and other mountain sections, is equally alarming for water levels going forward.
“This year, we are not in a different situation than last year. Compared to last year, there is an extra challenge: we are coming from a very dry year, many parts of Europe are still in almost dry conditions”, said Buontempo.
Source: DW
Lori Barajas is an accomplished journalist, known for her insightful and thought-provoking writing on economy. She currently works as a writer at 247 news reel. With a passion for understanding the economy, Lori’s writing delves deep into the financial issues that matter most, providing readers with a unique perspective on current events.