Leaders of American groups of this size Apple And her Visalike many others, declared themselves at their Development Forum China last weekend, which forum is considered top investment conference countries. For many, this was the first opportunity to visit the country in person after three years of restrictions, as well as to meet with newly appointed senior officials after major personnel changes.

The fervor of public debate on both sides signals a soft restoration of cooperation conditions. The toxic combination of White House sanctions on the one hand and lockdowns to fight the pandemic in China on the other have sent foreign direct investment into the country plummeting from a record high of $102 billion in the first quarter of 2022 to $20 billion. dollars. -year of $13 billion in the third quarter of that year, according to an analysis of Rhodium Group official data. There was a slight recovery in the last quarter of 2022, but US FDI in China has been slowing for years. Despite their suspicions of the government USAChinese officials do not want American capitalists to stop investing in their country because their companies are creating jobs, technology and excellence.

If these companies no longer act alone as leverage in favor of China, they are nonetheless a stabilizing factor in bilateral diplomatic relations. “Foreign companies are not guests, they are family,” Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao said on Sunday.

On the other side of the US, executives like Howard Schultz of Starbucks, which is aggressively expanding stores in what it calls its second home market, must reassure shareholders they are not wasting money. And that’s because China has become a problem for Starbucks’ profits lately.

So when International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said that China’s growth this year would represent a third of global growth and be a “welcome boost,” that’s exactly what the public wanted to hear at the Development Forum. However, it is not yet clear how long it will take for domestic consumption to recover.

When it comes to geopolitics, there is less reason for optimism, and executives like Apple’s Tim Cook are in a quandary. In their public appearances, they should appear as polite as possible to Chinese President Xi Jinping without attracting the attention of Congress. They privately identify alternatives for their supply chains.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that even in industries not considered cutting-edge, such as textiles and market research, the US is choosing to invest away from China by default. However, nothing builds trust like profit.

If China surprises by boosting domestic demand, US executives and shareholders will be reassured. The rest will depend on politicians and diplomats, which, unfortunately, does not inspire optimism.