It is not difficult to imagine that rich in hydrocarbons central Asia can compensate for the loss of Russian energy exports in Europe. Since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022 and the subsequent break energy relations between Europe and Russiathe inevitable question of the origin of his much-needed resources EUROPEAN UNION. appears as an ongoing problem. The EU was hurt by the fact of its general and decade-long dependence on natural gas supplies from Russia and lack of readiness to interrupt them. Now he is turning to finding alternative partners, upgrading his infrastructure and even bringing back coal-fired power plants, which will cancel his environmental commitments. For their part, the Central Asian states, rich in hydrocarbon reserves, are among those countries that can potentially replace Russian fuel. It is not difficult to imagine that these countries would play such a role, although the likelihood of such a plan being implemented is very small. And this is not due to little progress in democratic reforms in Central Asia, but to pragmatic and commercial decisions made decades ago.

Will Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan be able to compensate for the loss of Russian exports?

First, when we talk about Central Asia as a supplier of energy to Europe, we are mainly referring to Kazakhstan and possibly Turkmenistan. Turkmenistan is already partially present in the structure of European energy imports, while Kazakhstan has not yet fully realized its potential. Production in Kazakhstan is already operating at maximum capacity, with 80% of its oil passing through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, and there is very limited scope for increasing the volumes sent through the Druzhba pipeline. In addition, in 2022 the country faced some problems in exporting its hydrocarbons to international markets through pipelines passing through Russia due to the closure of port facilities in Novorossiysk. Dependence on the infrastructure of the Russian pipeline connecting Kazakhstan with Europe puts the country in a precarious position. This does not serve the readiness of European states to sever ties with Moscow, nor does it give any freedom for alternative routes for transporting Central Asian oil and natural gas in the short term. In addition, despite huge reserves and new field developments, investment in further exploration in Kazakhstan has declined in recent years. Currently, Turkmenistan does not directly supply natural gas to Western markets. China and Russia remain the main export destinations.

The exchange agreement signed between Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkmenistan in 2021 provides for the supply of two billion cubic meters of natural gas from Turkmenistan to Iran, which further ensures the supply of the corresponding amount of natural gas to Azerbaijan. This opened a window for facilitating trade in Turkmenistan’s natural gas with European markets. If an immediate increase in supplies from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to Europe is unlikely, is medium or long-term cooperation possible? The answer to the above question lies in the past and should have been answered about 20 years ago. The opportunity to build infrastructure between them has been missed when the EU’s priority is to restore relations with Russia.

Dr. Alia Tskai is a Research Fellow at the University of Agios Andreas, specializing in energy transition and the pursuit of zero pollution. The article was published on the website of the Friedrich Ebert Institute.