Both the rapprochement with Tehran and efforts to improve relations with Israel are part of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s top priority to secure his multi-trillion dollar plan. dollars to transform Saudi Arabia. However, his ambition to transform the kingdom’s economy, its society and its very position in the world depends on one fundamental factor: stability. All his efforts to protect his country from any escalation of tension between Israel and Iran stem from this overwhelming need. This is how sources close to the negotiations between Riyadh and Tehran, which began two years ago, estimate.

Saudi Arabia’s decision to re-establish diplomatic relations with Iran, a deal brokered by China and announced last week to everyone’s surprise, was the result of calculations by the country’s de facto leader. The Saudi prince realized that normalizing his country’s relations with its neighbors was the safest way to achieve his goals. His move is meant to neutralize any risk to his security, and especially those arising from the possibility that the new Israeli government decides to attack Iran over its nuclear program.

As Hesham Alganam, a Saudi foreign relations expert who has been actively involved in Riyadh’s behind-the-scenes consultations with the Iranians over the past six years, comments, “The Kingdom of Saudi has huge projects and big investments and does not want any escalation of tension in the region.” Prince Mohammed’s willingness to take diplomatic initiatives to bring stability to his country, even if it means bypassing the United States and joining China, reflects Saudi Arabia’s growing influence, say political and economic analysts in Arabia globally. After all, it is a fact that since the Russian invasion of Ukraine and after, and above all after what followed and forced countries to urgently look for alternative fossil fuel suppliers, while at the same time pushing the price of crude oil to heights, the first in the world, the oil exporting power has significantly strengthened its position in the global energy market. Its flagship oil industry and state-controlled giant, Saudi Aramco, posted a profit of $161 billion last year. It was the largest profit ever recorded by an oil and gas company. As for the economy of the kingdom as a whole, last year it was the fastest growing of all major economies.

In a multipolar world, Riyadh seeks to maintain balance with everyone, and especially with its neighbors.

The prince wants to use this profit to wean the Saudi economy off oil, strengthen it and make it one of the 15 largest economies in the world. The country’s sovereign wealth fund is spending billions of dollars to make the country attractive to tourists and investment. All this, however, would be blown up in the event of a new war in the Middle East. They will force Prince Mohammed to seek help from the United States and China. While the US remains Saudi Arabia’s most important defense and security partner and supplier of defense technology, the Saudis are increasingly doubtful that the superpower will support them in the event of an attack. Instead, they are betting that China, as their biggest trading partner and major buyer of Iranian oil, has more leverage.

Riyadh appears to believe that Beijing could rely on Iran in the event of a regional emergency, either from Yemen or due to some US or Israeli military action against Iran. The superpower remains central to the Saudi prince’s plans, and the kingdom recently signed a $37 billion deal with Boeing to buy planes from Riyadh Air.

However, the move to China is a major change in diplomatic orientation. “This is another Saudi Arabia,” said Karen Young, a researcher at the Center for Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. As he emphasizes, “it is all unthinkable under any other previous ruler of the kingdom, to keep so many balls in the air at the same time and all of them are of such great importance.”