Yevgeny Prigozhin may be enjoying his role as head of the out-of-control Wagner mercenary group he founded, but the establishment in Moscow now seems to have pinned him down to the point where he can barely breathe.

Prigozhin has made a bet that his mercenaries will raise the Russian flag in the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, but this will come at a heavy cost to his power and possibly his own fortune.

He has spent heavily recruiting up to 40,000 prisoners to throw into battle, but after months of merciless fighting and heavy casualties, he is struggling to replenish his ranks, accusing the Russian defense ministry of trying to stifle his power.

Many analysts believe that his suspicions are well founded – that the Russian military establishment is using Bahmud’s “meat grinder” to reduce or completely eliminate him as a political force.

Over the weekend, Prigozhin acknowledged that the fight in Bakhmut was “hard, very hard, the enemy fights for every event.”

Now, when Prigozhin most needs the support of regular Russian troops and a reliable flow of ammunition, neither seems to be available.

Wagner has made money around Bahamut and now owns the eastern part of the city. But he appears to be unable to muster a force capable of driving Ukrainian forces out of the rest of Bakhmut. His forces are spread out as they move northwest and southwest through the city.

According to the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu “is likely taking the opportunity to deliberately expend the strength of experienced fighters and Wagnerites on Bakhmut in an attempt to weaken Prigozhin and undermine his ambitions.” to increase influence in the Kremlin”.

For several weeks, Prigozhin and his commanders complained about the lack of ammunition as they tried to surround and capture Bakhmut.

According to ISW, “the Russian Foreign Ministry increasingly restricted Prigozhin’s ability to recruit prisoners and obtain ammunition, forcing him to publicly acknowledge his dependence” on the ministry.

Blaming Prigozhin also helps the defense ministry divert attention from its own setbacks, especially at Bugledar to the south, where regular Russian troops have suffered heavy casualties.

Now Wagner’s boss seems isolated. He was forced to send his best fighters into the Battle of Bakhmut, so the ISW’s assessment was that the Ministry of Defense ensured that Wagner “should bear the brunt of an intense war of attrition to capture Bakhmut to support conventional Russian forces.”

It seems that the Moscow elite already feels that Prigogine is in pain. On Monday, commentator Alexei Mukhin, a member of the Kremlin-linked Valdai Club think tank, accused Prigozhin in a Telegram post of having political ambitions — even presidential ambitions. This would be tantamount to… creating a religious sect in Putin’s Russia.

Mr Mukhin also said that Prigozhin is an incompetent commander who tries to mask his shortcomings by blaming the army, adding: “He put the Wagner fighters at great risk of being surrounded by an expected counterattack.”

Prigozhin replied: “Okay, I have no political ambitions, please give us ammunition.”

Source: CNN