What makes it special football compared to other sports is that it is more unpredictable as far as the outcome of a match is concerned. Numbers and statistics, although they now play an active role in preparing teams and analyzing their players as well as opponents, can essentially be canceled during a match.

Unlike basketball and volleyball, which are even more based on numbers that determine the final score, football can end up being won by a team that has had fewer possessions, fewer finals, and even fewer shots on goal.

A recent example is the match between Spezia and Inter in the Italian league where possession was 31%-69%, shots 4-28, shots on target 2-8 and correct passes 265-557 and yet the final score was 2-1 in favor of the home team.

This, of course, does not mean that the numbers cannot predict the winner of a match or even a major event. One of the biggest websites in the world that is trying to “record” the future is www.fivethirtyeight.com which began with the primary purpose of analyzing American election polls.

Hence its name, as the Electoral College consists of 538 electors, that is, the body through which the President and Vice President of the United States are elected. It was founded on 07/03/2008 for this purpose by statistician and analyst Nate Silver, who among other things is also a professional poker player, and has managed to become a giant since in 2010 he announced his partnership with the New York Times, in 2013 It was acquired by ESPN in 2018 and was taken over by ABC News under the auspices of The Walt Disney Company in 2018.

In addition to analyzing polls and predicting the next US president, he has now also entered the world of sports, starting, of course, with the NBA, baseball (MLB) and NLF (American football), since 2017 football has also been in his repertoire, initially with only six championships .

Predictions are based on a significantly revised version of the ESPN Football Strength Index (SPI), a rating system originally developed by Nate Silver himself to evaluate national teams.

But then the clubs were also included with data estimates dating back to 1888. Essentially, the SPI score measures the relative likelihood of a team winning, thus attempting to predict its future success in the competition it enters.

Naturally, the data changes after each match.

So, based on the data received after the end of the regular season of the league, “538.com” tried to predict the final winner of the league, the final rating, as well as the teams that will be relegated to Super League 2.

At last count Panathinaikos have a 34% chance of winning the cup, with their maximum points reaching 75 with a goal difference of +27, and 63% of them finishing in the Champions League, although judging by his latest SPI results, he has only 47.3 chances to win the next game.

In AEK, the corresponding numbers are: 29% for the title with 74 points and +40 goals, 57% for a place in the Champions League, and in SPI – 53.9.

Olympiacos have the same title chances of 29% (74 points, +46 goals), 58% to qualify from the Champions League, while having the highest SPI of 61.7, which is also a consequence of their victory in the last round at Opap Arena.

As for PAOK, the chances of winning the title are only 8% (69 points, +31 goals) with an SPI of 53. Aris and Volos have no chance of winning the title, and the yellows are calculated in the final table. with 52 points and Volos with 46 points.

In the stay battle, Ionikos is predicted to escape, which is valued at 25 points and with a 35% chance of relegation. Levadeakos is predicted to score 23 points with a 56% chance of relegation, Lamia will also score 23 points with a 58% percentage.

Europe and major leagues

In short, in terms of European competition, Manchester City are the favorites in the Champions League (33% of wins, 52% of finalists), followed by Bayern (23%, 41%) and Real Madrid (13%, 28%) .

In Europe, Arsenal ranks first (26%, 40%), and in the top three are Manchester United (19%, 35%) and Leverkusen (11%, 23%). Finally, in the Conference League we have: Fiorentina (23%, 40%), West Ham (22%, 40%) and Villarreal (17%, 31%).

For the five major leagues, the predictions are as follows:

Premier League: Arsenal (53% wins, 99% eliminations from the Champions League), Manchester City (47%, 99%), La Liga: Barcelona (85%, 99%), Real Madrid (15%, 99%), Bundesliga: Bayern (85%, 99%), Dortmund (12%, 96%) and Leipzig (3%, 85%), while finally in Serie A and Liga y we have confident champions Napoli and PSG with a percentage of 99.%.

In the following tables we see in detail the figures relating to the predictions for the three European Cups as well as the major leagues with the last day of settlement on March 14th.