Since last year India it is now officially the most populous country on the planet, overtaking China, which faces the threat of rapid aging. At the same time, by the end of the decade, India is expected to overtake Germany and Japan to become third largest economy in the world, with a GDP of about 7 trillion. dollars. In fact, thanks to its demographic dividend, it is quite possible that India will rise to the top spot in the second half of the 21st century. Estimates are now rising that India is likely to become the next “global factory”, coupled with the efforts of many countries to reduce their dependence on China. But how does India’s growing weight translate into political power on the international stage, and what challenges does it face as an emerging power?

Economic outlook for India

Despite its population size (17.5% of the total world population), India currently accounts for a disproportionate share of world trade. less than 2%. Due to the limited competitiveness of the Indian economy, New Delhi highly selective about free trade agreements. This explains India’s decision do not enter into a regional integrated economic partnership (RCEP), which was signed in November 2020 by 15 Indo-Pacific countries.

However, since rich human resources and relatively high growth ratesIndia has the ability to attract a lot of foreign investment despite the fact that it still lags behind in basic infrastructure.

The political and business elite of the country should focus on high value-added economic activities, and not just labour-intensive ones. To some extent, this is already happening, mainly in Hi-tech in the southern states of India, but the country’s long-term goal should be its full integration into global supply chains.

Political weight

Its permanent feature Foreign policy of India is flexibility and avoidance of explicit obligations to third parties, based on the national interests of the country. India’s refusal to condemn him was discussed at length Russian invasion of Ukraine and maintaining close financial relationships with Moscow. OUR Russia is a traditional strategic partner of India as a counterbalance China and supplier of hydrocarbons and weapons systems, but also as a source of nuclear and space technology. After all, a friendly attitude towards Russia is obvious, which is recorded in numerous polls. On top of that, India’s ambivalent position on this issue war in Ukraine it also stems to a certain extent from his desire to mediate between the camps that are forming on the international stage.

Although New Delhi has always been allergic to the idea of ​​joining political and military coalitions, India understands that its isolation will cost even more. That is why he is very cautious about participating in non-coalition associations such as Shanghai Cooperation Organization And BRICS group, with China and Russia as the main pillars. At the same time, he is the most cautious member of the four-part formation. Quadruple, which is completed by the USA, Japan and Australia. Instead, New Delhi favors global multilateral schemes such as the group G20 and is currently exercising its rotating presidency.

Regarding his military power, it is noted that in 2021, India ranked third in the world in defense spending behind the US and China.. New Delhi is forced to advance the modernization of its armed forces in a region that is increasingly becoming the geopolitical center of the planet.

Are India’s ambitions justified?

There is no doubt that India will come to the fore and take an important place on the world stage. The most populous country in the world, of course, has a specific weight, although it does not yet have the power that would be proportional to its size. At the moment, its economic development is a priority, so that it can project significant political and military power. The challenges currently facing India are mainly structural/institutional and technological in nature and much less related to the sufficiency of resources.

But once these difficulties are overcome, an economically dynamic India will contribute to global growth both as an alternative supplier of goods and as a promising market. Equally important is the fact that a more modern India, currently a major polluter, will play an important role in the global green transition in response to the real threat of climate change. Finally, a strong India can play a stabilizing role in the fragmented international order that is emerging in the third decade of the 21st century.

Last but not least, New Delhi a potentially valuable ally of Greece in matters related to the highest priorities of Greek foreign policy. An example is the accession of India to International Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which Turkey did not sign, and China flagrantly violated its own dispute with the Philippines in the South China Sea. In the future, India will also open important opportunities for Greek shipping companies, while there is no reason for foreign investors not to include Greek companies.

*Plamen Tonchev, Head of Asian Studies Department, Institute of International Economic Relations (IDOS)