At the level of 2.5%, the National Bank now predicts that the growth rate will form in 2023, compared with its previous forecast, as well as the budget forecast for 2023 at 1.8%.

According to a study by the bank’s Economic Analysis Department, this upward revision is linked to the strong 2022 results announced by ELSTAT last week. The so-called pass-through effect is now estimated at around 1.5% compared to the previous estimate of 0.8%.

This is also due to the strengthening of high-frequency indicators for the first months of 2023, which forecast stable or marginally positive QoQ GDP growth (+3% year-on-year). These indicators include economic sentiment, manufacturing PMI, employment, which increased by 2.9% year on year in January, VAT receipts, which increased by 58% year on year in January, and international arrivals at Athens International Airport, which doubled. the first two months of 2023.

The upward revision is driven by strong 2022 results.

Interesting, of course, is the assessment of National Bank analysts led by economist Nikos Magina that the country’s exports in 2022 in comparable prices are likely to be significantly underestimated, especially in relation to services, due to the application of a very high deflator, 30. 2%. If we adjust the deflator according to data from other countries with similar characteristics in the structure of trade, and in particular in the service sector, i.e. by 27%, according to Ethniki analysts, then the volume of exports would increase by 9%, not 4.9%. %, with a positive effect in GDP of 1.5 p.p. Thus, the growth rate will increase in 2022 to 7.5% against 6.1% calculated by the bank (seasonally adjusted) and 5.9% announced by ELSTAT (not seasonally adjusted).

Commenting on the results of 2022, the analysis of the National Bank notes a further acceleration of gross fixed capital formation (+14.8% year-on-year in Q4), while its share in GDP increased to 14.6% this quarter compared to the average for 10 years. by 11.4% with additional support from the growth of construction activity and increased investment in transport equipment.

Also, private consumption increased by 4.2% in the fourth quarter and by 8% overall for the year.