Well above the EU average. was found Hellasfor the second year, based on growth rate 5.9% in 2022, as shown by his yesterday’s numbers ELSTAT. According to his preliminary data Eurostat (final figures announced today), growth in the Eurozone was 3.5%, and in the European Union – 3.6%.

The government’s forecast for the budget was at 5.6%.

Based on these figures, it is expected to be better than the budget forecast in 2023. In particular, although the budget provides for a rate of 1.8%, it is expected that it will eventually exceed 2%. According to her analysis National Bank and Chief Economist Nikos Magina, “the estimated positive pass-through from 2022 growth to 2023 GDP growth is revised upward to +1.5% year-on-year from the previous estimate of 0.9%, indicating to an increased likelihood of GDP growth in 2023 above 2% year-on-year.”

The growth rate of 5.9% came after the revision of third quarter GDP data, which is now estimated to be up 4.4% from the previous estimate of 2.8%. As stated in the ELSTAT announcement, data on Energy Transition Fund revenues were included that were not available in the previous assessment for December 2022. However, the ELSTAT announcement retains a caveat to the possible reclassification of these revenues by Eurostat “under the final agreed regime of these transactions”. In this context, it is possible that the positive effects of integrating the revenues of the Energy Transition Fund may be fully or partially reversed. The second GDP estimate for 2022 will be published on October 18, 2023.

In the fourth quarter, according to ELSTAT, the growth rate was 5.2% compared to the same period of the previous year.

However, the qualitative data on GDP growth are not all moving in a positive direction. Yes, there has been a significant increase in investment, but consumption remains the main character, and the increase in the external balance deficit is a concern.

Consumption is leading, while the growth of the external balance deficit is worrying.

In particular, personal consumption of households increased by 7.8% over the year as a whole due to government support measures. Investment is estimated to have increased by 11.6% (excluding reserves).

On the contrary, exports of goods and services grew by only 4.9% against an increase in imports of goods and services by 10.2%. “The dynamics of the external sector are worrisome,” said Thasos Anastasatos, chief economist at Eurobank, noting that exports are on a downward trend, while imports are on the rise.

It is estimated that net exports (exports minus imports) are subtracted from GDP by 2.8 percentage points. On the contrary, the reserves, which appear to be particularly elevated – and are the amount of which analysts have questions – according to the analysis of the National Bank, were estimated to have added 2.4 units to GDP.

According to ELSTAT, GDP in physical terms in 2022 amounted to 192.1 billion euros compared to 181.3 billion euros in 2021, an increase of 5.9%. At current prices, GDP reached 208 billion euros against 181.7 billion euros in 2021, showing an increase of 14.5%.

According to the National Bank, in nominal terms, GDP grew by 14%, exceeding its pre-pandemic level in 2019 by 13.3%.

ELSTAT has slightly revised the data for the first and second quarters of 2022. Thus, in the first quarter GDP growth is estimated at 7.5% (against the previous forecast of 7.9%), in the second quarter at 7.3% (against the forecast of 7.9%). the previous forecast was 7.1%), while in the 3rd quarter, as mentioned above, GDP is now estimated as an increase of 4.4% (against the previous forecast of 2.8%), and in the dth quarter by 5, 2%.

Investment level

Governor of the Bank of Greece Yiannis Sturnaras urged the country’s next government to remain financially prudent, predicting inclusion in the investment rating in the coming months. As he told the Financial Times, if the next government signals that it intends to continue reforms and take advantage of the window of opportunity to reduce the country’s debt, investment levels will be reached within a year. In fact, he calculated that the most likely time for a raise would be immediately after the election, but he did not rule out that it would happen before the vote. According to the head of the central bank, the vicious circle of recent years cannot be broken. “Greece,” he said, “has managed to correct its macroeconomic imbalances and improve price and wage competitiveness, but structural competitiveness remains low compared to eurozone members.” And he added against the background of the railway tragedy: “The country’s infrastructure and the modernization of the public sector remain in demand.”