I declare once again that the state is unable to provide energy needs of citizens. Note that until 2031, according to RET Transelectrica, electricity consumption will grow by 1.5% per year. This means that in 2031, electricity demand will increase by about 11% to 65.25 TWh.

In last week’s article, we said that decision-makers are not moving towards the real problems of national energy consumption by remaining stuck on the “greening” of electricity generation. I would like to remind you that the main problem of the primary energy mix is ​​domestic thermal energy, which accounts for 35% of the total energy consumption of Romania, in third place is transport and industrial and household electricity consumption. But we still start with electricity.

Electricity in large urban agglomerations

Regarding the “greening” of the electric power complex, I can only say that Romania ranks second after Sweden in the list of the least polluting countries. I don’t understand where the decision-makers are getting this environmental impulse from, because we are headed for a blackout. Renewable energy sources are unstable until we have storage, as contributors.ro colleague Cătălin Dragostin wrote.

I will also remind you that in the near future coal will disappear from the balance sheet of the electric power industry, with a capacity of about 4,000 MW, which is 20% of the total production. Firstly, because the installations are worn out physically and morally, and only secondly, because the EU is campaigning for the disappearance of coal. Gas production capacity is also in a similar situation, about 600 MW will disappear, which is about 5% of total production. The Ministry of Energy plans to invest in two gas power plants in Ishalnytsia (850 MW) and Turcheni (475 MW). Iernutut (430 MW) is an example of the inability of the Romanian state to do nothing. Even if these three capacities were put into operation in three years (which is a fiction), we would still lack almost 3,000 MW.

We would like to add that from January 1, 2026, the first Chernavoda reactor (720 MW – approx. 9% of production) will undergo a three-year overhaul. The shortfall of 3,700MW from SEN is greater than the imported capacity, which is said to be just over 3,000MW. The Ministry of Energy and NARE will oblige to hang a piece of paper on the door with the inscription “We have electricity only on sunny days and when the wind blows!”. All the data I calculated are close to the black scenario (that is, the “critical” one that I have already introduced) presented in the RET Development Plan (see pages 139 – 140 here). A scenario that clearly states: “SEN no longer has the necessary resources to cover electricity consumption with maximum capacity utilization of cross-border imports.”

What does it mean?

We have several large urban agglomerations. Bucharest – Ilfov, Braila – Galaţi district, Cluj-Napoca – Florest, Constanta, Iasi, Timisoara – Arad, Brasov, Sibiu or Craiova – some of them. Almost all of Romania’s economic activity is concentrated here. In other words, energy poverty seriously affects the economy and its development.

The decision makers announce to us with trumpets and fanfare that they will attract important funds from the PNRR and a lot of foreign investment, companies that want to move out of high risk areas. What will cover the energy needs of these new investments? I don’t think the Black Sea wind utopia will be the answer that the Energy Policy Group has been pestering us about for two years (the last time in January 2023) and which makes us wonder what hidden interests are behind this potential mega-deal. , since the head of the NGO is also an adviser to the minister.

In other words, mayors and heads of county councils must admit that they will have problems. Bucharest cannot cover its electricity needs by even 25%, there is no safe power generation capacity in the Braila-Galati, Cluj-Napoca-Floresti and Sibiu areas, and the existing capacity in Constanta, Iași and Timişoara-Arad also does not cover consumption needs. .

The solution is to democratize energy production and achieve local energy self-sufficiency.

Transport in large urban agglomerations

Transport is the second largest consumer of energy in Romania. Transport is also the first major source of pollution in large urban agglomerations.

We have to give up transportation by private cars. Many years ago I saw a statistic that showed that more than half of the personal cars on the road have only one user. We need to discourage multi-car ownership. It is necessary to stimulate public transport. This is a western practice!

Let’s start with parking: if Bucharest – Ilfov has 1,800,000 cars and several tens of thousands of trucks, buses and city buses, we have a problem with their parking. If 1% of them look for a parking space every day for 10 minutes, we already have several tons of fuel wasted every day and several tons of particulate matter and CO2 emitted annually. The problem of parking and a large number of cars is a problem that most mayors of large cities do not solve. It is quite difficult to make new parking spaces. No place is needed.

What would happen if taxes on personal cars were increased? What if taxes were doubled for other cars or tripled for owners of third cars? What would happen if we increased the fee for each parking space? In one of the sectors, parking spaces are put up for auction! And this is a means of reducing the number of cars!

There is more and more talk about electric mobility. Various brands and models of electric cars have appeared on the market. This is not the future! What if 1,800,000 cars in Bucharest – Ilfov were electric? (Do not add cars to rented and transit cars!) We would not have the capacity to supply them, electric transmission and distribution networks would not be able to cope!

The future lies in transport that uses hydrogen as fuel. More than two years ago, I wrote about this decision. Nothing more was done. Only in Cluj-Napoca did a bus (or two) start running on hydrogen fuel. (I sit and wonder where they get their supplies.)

Hydrogen is expensive because it is produced in low yields, in addition to its storage and transportation, and requires specific infrastructure. Pollution and public health are important, and I think it’s cheaper to reduce pollution than to pay for those who get sick from pollution. (This is a pragmatic calculation, but everyone’s life is more important than anything else!) At least we can switch public transport and trucking to hydrogen without being able to force the citizen to change his polluting personal car.

Nothing has been done for this transition to hydrogen. Just gargle. Hydrogen production is the same, and distribution is owned by two large foreign companies. In principle, it is not difficult to get. There is the possibility of hydrogen production “at the pump”, ie some containers that produce H2 and that are supplied with electricity and water, they can be placed almost anywhere, and the supply is similar to LPG. We have a source of water, the problem is the source of electricity, which we talked about above. Read the whole article and comment on Contributors.ro