Turkey has been shunned by investors in recent years because its president, Tayyip Erdogan, has allowed runaway inflation. The country’s relations with the West deteriorated due to the fact that she agreed with Vladimir Putin.

It has also done very little to limit carbon emissions. Everything could change if the opposition wins the upcoming elections, more likely after the recent deadly earthquake. Erdogan, of course, can even keep his power. But an earthquake in southeastern Turkey that killed nearly 44,000 people has taken its toll, according to official figures. The six-party coalition, which opposes the ruling party, plans to tamp down inflation, which, according to official figures, is 58 percent. He is committed to restoring democratic norms and the rule of law, which have been undermined by Erdogan’s 20-year rule. It will also try to make it clear that Turkey is a loyal member of the NATO alliance.

The current president’s decision to block Sweden and Finland from joining the transatlantic defense pact has called this into question.

Such a policy would lead to an influx of Western investment and could pave the way for a new trade and climate deal between Turkey and the European Union.

The economic reforms proposed by the opposition will be painful in the short term, although Erdogan’s unorthodox policies portend a much larger economic crisis. Last week, Turkey’s central bank, which is under the control of the country’s president, cut interest rates to 8.5%, which means that the real cost of borrowing has become sharply negative. The bank also sells foreign exchange to support the pound, although it has few international reserves. Despite the opposition’s promise to restore the bank’s independence, it will be difficult to suppress inflation.

After all, if the pound weakens, inflation will rise first. Moreover, Turkey may need impressively high interest rates to control prices. This could trigger a recession, undermining the popularity of the new government. International investors may remain on hold until they are satisfied that the new government can handle the effects of the difficult regime.

Erdogan also made a banking mess. His government forced lending institutions to buy low-yielding government bonds. As interest rates rise, these institutions will be forced to bear heavy losses. The government also promised to protect lira deposits in the event of a devaluation. Thus, the new government may have to recapitalize the country’s banks and funnel cash to savers. However, with a gross public debt of only 38% of national income, Turkey could afford such a blow.

The new government may also uncover other “skeletons in the closet,” says Tim Ash, chief strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, for example, as little is known about Erdogan’s relationship with Putin. However, if Turkey faces an economic crisis, it may turn to the IMF for a hard currency loan. The multi-party coalition should probably do this early to gain additional financial credibility, although it is unlikely to dare.