The dependence of world agricultural production on fertilizers from just three countries is again a concern, as it again carries the risk food crisis due to a reduction in production. The world supplies fertilizer from Russia, China And Belarus and a year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the United Nations warns that the turmoil caused by this devastating war in fertilizer markets is the number one risk to food security and sufficiency in 2023. worth $250 billion, highlighted the key role of Russia and Belarus as they are countries that export about 25% of world fertilizer production.

After all, according to the IMF, fertilizers are crucial to ensure agricultural production, now that the shock of the war between Russia and Ukraine threatens a food crisis in 48 countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America. In addition to risks to the survival of the population, especially the poorest, the global oligopoly of these three countries in the production and marketing of fertilizers began to worry governments around the world. Thus, the issue has become high on the political agenda of many governments, while at the same time fueling a confrontation over who is responsible for the escalation of the crisis that led to this shortage. Three categories of fertilizers produced in Russia – potash, phosphorus-salt and nitrogen – are not subject to sanctions because of their criticality for global agricultural production. However, their exports remain limited due to a combination of barriers they face in ports, loading, bank management of their trade and insurance.

Speaking to Bloomberg, the Russian fertilizer tycoon and owner of the EuroChem fertilizer group said EU sanctions have blocked trade in Russia to the point that by February 24, the anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, total fertilizer exports will drop by 13%. million tons. Last summer, global market turmoil sent prices skyrocketing, forcing any countries or industries that could afford the cost to stockpile. Meanwhile, prices have partly declined but remain above pre-pandemic levels. After all, fertilizer supplies are very limited in the poorest areas. And the situation worsens after the imposition of sanctions against Belarus, a giant in the production of potash fertilizers, and, above all, after the decision of China, the most important producer of phosphorus and nitrogen, to impose export restrictions on both categories of fertilizers in order to ensure sufficiency in the domestic market. Market participants do not take into account that these restrictions will not be lifted at best until mid-2023. The repercussions and geopolitical turmoil are being felt everywhere, from Ukraine to even Canada, which is the world’s number one potash producer, with Russia and Belarus coming in second and third respectively. The Brazilian agriculture minister traveled to Canada immediately after the outbreak of the war to secure fertilizer supplies.