Romania’s economy should register growth of 2.5% in 2023 and 3% in 2024, while inflation will be 9.7% this year and 5.5% next year, according to the Winter 2023 economic forecast published in Monday by the European Commission. , reports Agerpres.

Based on short-term indicators, Romania’s economy is expected to be resilient in the fourth quarter of 2022 on the back of favorable developments in the services sector and confidence in the economy, and despite continued declines in industrial output.

In 2023, the negative impact of still high inflation, tightening of financing conditions and the slowdown of the economies of other EU countries will lead to lower real GDP growth in Romania by 2.5%.

The implementation of the PNNR should facilitate strong investment, which will become the main engine of growth. Other European funds will also support the investment.

Private consumption, despite the negative impact of high inflation, will grow following the increase in the minimum wage, pensions and salaries in the public sector, as well as the extension of the energy price cap until 2025. Net exports will remain negative against the background of a strong currency and low demand in export markets.

In 2024, economic growth is forecast to recover to 3% against the background of weakening inflationary pressure, lower interest rates and improved external forecasts.

In December, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP – an indicator for determining inflation at the level of EU member states) slowed due to lower energy and food prices, so the average in 2022 was 12%.

Inflation is expected to moderate in 2023-2024, but modestly, as inflationary pressures remain extremely high in core components such as services, non-energy manufactured goods and processed food.

The harmonized index of consumer prices is expected to be 9.7% in 2023, before slowing to 5.5% in 2024, following the expansion of marginal energy prices and lower commodity prices.