Raising their estimates for both the European and the Greek economy, European Commission.

In its winter estimates, the Commission now expects a higher rate development and slightly lower inflation than autumn estimates, suggesting that inflation peaked but will not ease in the first quarter of 2023.

Growth forecast for 2023 (%):

🇮🇪 4.9
🇲🇹 3.1
🇬🇴 2.5
🇱🇺 1.7
🇨🇾 1.6
🇸🇰 1.5
🇪🇸 1.4
🇧🇬 1.4
🇬🇧 1.2
🇭🇷 1.2
🇸🇮 1.0
🇵🇹 1.0
🇳🇱 0.9
🇧🇪 0.8
🇮🇹 0.8
🇪🇺 0.8
🇫🇷 0.6
🇭🇺 0.6
🇦🇹 0.5
🇵🇱 0.4
🇱🇹 0.3
🇩🇪 0.2
🇫🇮 0.2
🇨🇿 0.1
🇪🇪 0.1
🇱🇻 0.1
🇩🇰 0.1
🇸🇪 -0.8

Winter #ECForecast ↓

— European Commission 🇪🇺 (@EU_Commission) February 13, 2023

In addition, the Commission estimates that overall Greek GDP growth in 2022 reached 5.5%, while inflation reached 9.3%. According to his estimates, in 2023 the Greek economy will grow by 1.2%, and in 2024 by 2.2%. Inflation is estimated at 4.5% this year and 2.4% in 2024.

Recall that in its autumn forecasts, the Commission expected Greece to grow by 6% in 2022, 1% in 2023 and 2% in 2024. She also estimated inflation for our country at 10% in 2022, 6% in 2023 and 2 . 4% in 2024.

European economy

In particular, growth in 2022 is estimated at 3.5% in both the European Union and the Eurozone. For 2023, he expects growth in the Eurozone by 0.9%, and in 2024 – by 1.5%. Inflation is projected to decline from 8.4% in 2022 to 5.6% in 2023 and 2.5% in 2024.

Important developments have taken place since autumn, such as the fall in natural gas prices to pre-war levels, according to the Commission. This development is actually due in part to the sudden reduction in consumption and efforts to diversify energy sources.

As the Commission specifically notes, “the resilience of households and businesses has been impressive.” Despite the energy crisis and record high inflation, the slowdown in the third quarter of 2023 was milder than expected, and the European economy stagnated in the fourth quarter despite a widely expected contraction of 0.5%.

The report also notes that the labor market remains resilient, with unemployment across the EU hit a record low of 6.1% in December.

Predictions for Greece

According to the European Commission, the Greek economy recorded strong growth in the first half of 2022, but rising inflation affected the course of the second half. However, the Recovery Fund provided significant support to the economy, and government measures limited the impact of high energy prices on business spending and household net disposable income.

A slowdown in inflation is expected to gradually ease the burden on household net income and support private consumption. The Commission emphasizes that the timely and effective implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Plan is expected to remain a major driver of investment growth in a more expensive financing environment. With a gradual improvement in the external environment in the second half of 2023, exports are expected to accelerate in 2024. International tourism receipts are projected to increase in 2023 and 2024.

The Commission notes that inflation has already begun to decline and will continue to slow in the coming period due to falling energy prices. However, food inflation is expected to persist due to the delay in passing the effects of high energy prices on food production.

The Commission notes that the increase in base wages that will take place in the coming months has not been factored into inflation projections, as the size of the increase has not yet been announced. As for the risks for development, they are associated with the possible impact of geopolitical tensions on tourist flows. As for the risks on the path of inflation, they are associated with an increase in the minimum wage.