The catalyst for China’s development is estimated to be the forced ascetic life that the Chinese have been leading in the past three years due to a series of lockdowns and a zero-tolerance policy for the coronavirus. Traditionally an oligarchic people, the Chinese, during periods spent locked up in their homes, were systematically rescued. In the final year of zero tolerance for the coronavirus, a dizzying amount of $2.6 trillion was saved last year. USD Now life is back to normal, the economy is resetting, and they are spending lavishly what they have been deprived of for three years and are already stimulating the Chinese economy. With household spending expected to improve further, Fitch raises its forecast for the world’s second largest economy.

The People’s Bank of China specifically reported that total Chinese household savings increased by $17.84 trillion in 2022. yuan, equivalent to 2.6 trillion. US dollars, which means an increase of 80% compared to 2021 levels. This amount is more than 1/3 of the total income of Chinese households, which before the pandemic saved about 20% of their income. But since the restrictions went into effect, Chinese consumers have been enjoying their ability to spend as much as ever on hotel reservations and travel packages, movie tickets and restaurant dinners. Thus, according to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, during the seven-day celebration of the Chinese New Year, more than 300 million Chinese traveled and spent $ 56 billion on their holidays, which is 30% more than the corresponding seven days. -day period of last year year. According to the tax authorities, sales of consumer goods are now at a level of 12% higher than before the pandemic.

According to Tongcheng Travel, hotel bookings have increased tenfold in some particularly popular tourist destinations such as the cities of Xi’an and Liuyang. The museum of Emperor Qinxi Huang’s famous “Clay Army” in Xi’an was so crowded that visitors complained on social media that they could only see each other and not the statues. In addition, the value of tickets sold by major theaters exceeded $1.5 billion last month, the highest level ever recorded in January. Much of this was due to the extraordinary holiday week during which 129 million tickets were sold in theaters, according to the China Cinematographers Association.

Fitch is revising its growth forecast for China’s economy upward to 5% in 2023 from 4.1% in the previous estimate.

All of this has boosted business confidence: Xiabuxiabu has achieved record sales and opened 34 new stores in the past month. Thus, Fitch Ratings is revising upward its forecast for the growth of the Chinese economy to 5% for 2023, while its previous estimate in December last year spoke only of GDP growth at the level of 4.1%.

Paradoxically, the house in question is basing its forecast on a UBS estimate that Chinese household savings are anywhere from $590 billion to $678 billion, far less than China’s central bank figures. However, the house in question believes that immediately after the lifting of restrictive measures, “consumption and economic activity in China are recovering much faster than originally thought.” At the same time, Fitch cites recent data showing strong PMI growth in the vital manufacturing and services sectors, indicating growth in both sectors. For its part, however, UBS is clearly more cautious about whether Chinese households are going to spend their savings lavishly, stressing that “surplus savings may not be fully spent, even very quickly in 2023.” The Swiss bank predicts, in particular, that household consumption will grow by 10-11% this year, and its economist Wang Tao emphasizes that “neither employment nor household incomes have yet fully recovered, so consumer confidence may not completely decline.” recover and consumers should remain cautious.” He predicts that consumption in the country will fully recover from 2024.