With different proposals considering the first simple proportional vote, but also with alternative strategies on how to manage the research mandate they will receive on the “next day” elections from the President of the Republic Katerina Sakellaropoulou to enter the last part of the pre-election period Mr. Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Alexis Tsipras and Nikos Androulakis.

In essence, the way the three political leaders approach the battle of the first election “prescribes” their moves in the “chess” of investigative orders before the country is led – with relative certainty – about a month later, in the second election with the election law passed by the ND :

• Mr. Mitsotakis he spoke of a “united” self-reliant electoral competition, with the first elections essentially being a tool to defuse the mine of mere proportionality, which, he stresses, is a source of instability for the country.

• Mr. Tsipras refers to the “government of the victors”, a position which is interpreted as a signal that he will use his research mandate in the event that SYRIZA becomes the first party.

• Mr. Androulakiss photographs the formation of a government from the first ballots of a simple proportional system based on a program agreement.

However, the above “starting” positions of political leaders do not fully determine how they will act when they receive three days of intelligence assignments from the President of the Republic. Moreover, their actions will be seriously assessed by the electorate on the threshold of the second elections.

N.D. and correlations

It was reported from the Maximos Palace that any discussions about the “next day” of the ballot box are still too early and that Mr. Mitsotakis is not opening his papers on this particular issue. However, government officials have calculated that in the context of the research mandate he will be the first to receive – if, as all polls suggest, N.D. is the first party – it is not going to meet with leaders with whom there is no place for cooperation even after the second election: that is, with Mr. Tsipras, Koutsoubas, Velopoulos and Varoufakis. As they add, the possibility of discussing with Mr. Androulakis can only be an open question. This will largely be determined by the “composition” of the election results. If N.D. close to 36% in percentage terms, as several opinion polls have shown, any meeting between the prime minister and the PASOK president will have no practical political value, as the ruling party will be two steps away from independence in the second round of voting.

Kyriakos Mitsotakis is not going to meet leaders with whom there is no room for cooperation, even after the second election.

On the contrary, if N.D. moves lower, the data may change: not only N.A. but also the strength of other parties – if and from where the ruling party can attract additional voters during the second election. So a meeting with Mr. Androulakis could not be ruled out even on the horizon of the day after the second election.

SYRIZA and the “winners”

However, Alexis Tsipras also has alternative scenarios for managing his own investigative mandate. The President of SYRIZA refers to the “progressive management” of the “winners” as he reasonably seeks to express all of the “anti-N.D. front”: a position that is interpreted as an invitation to PASOK, MeRA25 and even the KKE to form a government if SYRIZA is the first party.

However, many believe that Mr. Tsipras may be playing a card in trying to form a government, even if N.D. he has a slight lead of 1.5%-2.5% in a simple proportional box. “When the polls show that the ND is 6 or 7 percentage points and the difference drops sharply, who will be the real winner?” they say, implying that if the election arithmetic allows it, then the President of SYRIZA will have to exhaust the possibilities of government formation in the context of his On the contrary, others argue that if the difference between N.D. and SYRIZA was significantly reduced, Alexis Tsipras would have to use his momentum and seek the electoral lead during the second contest.

It should be noted, finally, that Mr. Tsipras rejected proposals to try to form a minority government, that is, with a vote of confidence of at least 120 deputies. According to the specific proposal, a government scheme with a limited time horizon could be implemented, which would pass a number of pro-popular bills and change the N.D. and then lead the country to new elections.

PASOK and the Decalogue

Finally, Harilaou Trikoupi develops his own strategy. Mr. Androulakis is determined to make full use of his exploratory mandate, provided that the election results allow him to negotiate from a position of strength. What does this mean practically? This PASOK should have a “clean” double digit percentage of at least 12%-13%, which seems to be coming together based on cuts in current opinion polls. In that case, Mr. Androulakis is reportedly willing to discuss “with everyone”, i.e. with both Mr. Mitsotakis and Mr. Tsipras, on the basis of a 10-point policy proposal that he presented – and will further refine – PASOK. In fact, the proposal will be worded in such a way that Mr. Androulakis will have room for manipulation, so that he can weigh more broadly whether and under what conditions PASOK should participate in a cooperation government.

Mrs. Sakellaropoulou

A variable associated with blocking amendments in the Kasidiari and Golden Dawn parties is also the procedure provided for by the Constitution if the investigative orders to be obtained by the leaders of the first three parties prove to be inconclusive. According to Article 37, before forming an interim government, the President of the Republic “summons the leaders of the parties to confirm the impossibility of forming a government that enjoys the confidence of Parliament.” Obviously, the question of how this meeting will go is critical if the proposed law is “circumvented” and one of the neo-Nazi groups manages to gain representation in the next parliament.