BCR revised its inflation forecast for the end of 2023 to 8% from 8.7% on expectations of cheaper agricultural inputs and energy, it said in a note sent to investors.
“Inflationary pressure will decrease after the first quarter of 2023 due to the favorable basic statistical effect of the price component of energy carriers. We expect the BNR to maintain the monetary policy interest rate at 7.00% in 2023,” the report, signed by Chief Economist Ciprian Daskalou, also states.
Risks to the future path of inflation remain higher as current inflationary pressures spread across a broad spectrum of the consumer basket, with certain categories expected to persist for a longer period.
In January 2023, the banking system registered a liquidity surplus compared to the NBR of 21.3 billion RON (average daily reserve), which is twice as much as in the previous month, when a surplus of 10.9 billion RON was recorded. Banks used the NBR deposit line in the amount of 21.3 billion RON (average daily reserve).
BNR did not buy government securities in lei even in January 2023. This excess liquidity is the result of very large payments made by the Ministry of Finance in December, when the budget deficit increased by 22.3 billion lei in one month, the document also stated.
Source: Hot News
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