The deadliest earthquake in a generation presents Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with a huge rescue and reconstruction challenge that will overshadow the run-up to May elections, already seen as the toughest of his two decades in power. This was reported by Reuters in an analysis.

A day after an earthquake killed more than 3,500 people in Turkey, opposition parties and some residents of the worst-hit areas complained that authorities were slow or ill-equipped to deal with the problems.

Perceptions that the government is unable to adequately respond to the disaster, or that it has failed to enforce necessary building codes in the earthquake-prone country, could hurt Erdogan’s electoral prospects.

How Erdogan could strengthen his position

But analysts say the president, a seasoned politician whose government has dealt with earthquakes, wildfires and other natural disasters since taking office in 2003, could win national support in this crisis and strengthen his position.

Just hours after Monday’s earthquake, which he described as the strongest to hit Turkey in more than 80 years, Erdogan said thousands of rescuers had already been mobilized and that no effort would be spared in the harsh winter conditions.

The government declared an “alert level 4”, requesting international aid, and imposed a three-month state of emergency in the worst-hit provinces.

“Erdogan reacted quickly and consistently to the crisis. Most likely, this will strengthen his image as a strong leader in the run-up to the May 14 elections, if the authorities can maintain the initial momentum,” said the Eurasia consulting group.

“Black Swan”

Reconstruction costs could reach many billions of dollars, putting pressure on an economy with inflation at 58%. Economists believe disruptions in the region of 13 million people could limit growth this year.

The scale of the damage, spanning hundreds of kilometers and affecting millions of people and their homes, will “completely reset” Turkey’s economy and politics, said Atilla Yesilada of Global Source Partners.

Describing the 7.7-magnitude earthquake as a “black swan,” an event so unforeseen or unlikely that it could have extraordinary consequences, he said it was not yet clear whether elections could be held in the worst-hit regions.

Erdogan’s political opponents have been slow to make political gains in the immediate aftermath of the earthquake, while people are still trapped under the rubble and the death toll continues to rise.

The six-party opposition only said the government must work “without discrimination” to respond to the natural disaster, which has hit regions with Kurdish communities and Syrian refugees.

But Ugur Poyraz, secretary general of the center-right nationalist IYI party, said he had visited the worst-hit areas and had seen no emergency workers on Tuesday morning. “Definitely, there is no professional coordination of emergency care. Local residents and teams are joining rescue operations on their own initiative to rescue people from the rubble,” he told Reuters.

Authorities say more than 12,000 search and rescue workers and 9,000 soldiers are involved in the operation.

With an election coming up, the government’s response to the emergency could sway undecided voters, although it is unlikely to change the minds of loyal supporters of either party, said Hasnain Malik, director of emerging markets at Tellimer., Dubai.

“The Erdogan government’s response to this natural disaster may affect the attitudes of undecided voters, but the loyalty of most voters is already established,” he added. (Source: Agerpres)