Russian President Vladimir Putin and his close Kremlin advisers may have lost confidence in Wagner’s group of mercenaries led by Yevgeny Prigozhin after they failed to capture the key city of Bakhmut, according to the latest assessment by the US Institute for the Study of War.

The ISW assessment notes that despite the numerous defeats and setbacks suffered by the regular armed forces, Putin’s confidence would again turn to the military command in Moscow, as Wagner’s mercenaries failed to capture a city in Donetsk region, although they launched numerous bloody operations. has been attacking here since the beginning of August.

“Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to have urged Prigozhin and General Serhii Surovykin, who is considered his ally, to continue efforts to gain ground and defeat the will of Ukraine and its Western backers to continue the war after Russia’s regular army forces have been defeated. exhausted and have suffered catastrophic failures,” the ISW assessment noted.

It will be recalled that on January 11, Surovikin, nicknamed “General Armageddon”, was removed from the position of commander of the invasion forces, and the head of the General Staff of Russia, General Valery Gerasimov, was appointed in his place. Surovikin was appointed commander-in-chief of Russian forces in Ukraine last October.

“Putin apparently decided to give Prigozhin and Surovikin a chance to show what they can do with mobilized prisoners, on the one hand, and brutal air strikes on the civilian infrastructure of Ukraine, on the other. Both attempts failed, as Prigozhin’s efforts to capture Bakhmut had already reached their peak, and Surovikin’s air campaign only caused more suffering to Ukrainian civilians, even though he used most of the stockpile of high-precision missiles that Russia previously had,” ISW notes. .

“Illusions” by Yevgeny Prigozhin

U.S. military analysts say Prigozhin, who last September admitted for the first time that he founded Wagner’s paramilitary group in 2014, appears to have believed that this stage of the war would be the moment when his irregular troops could prove their capacity and capability. he would be able to gain a more prominent role in commanding the invasion at the expense of the military command in Moscow.

“These hopes now appear to have been realised,” the ISW assessment said.

It is symbolic in this sense that on January 10, Putin appointed the former commander of the Central Military District, Colonel-General Oleksandr Lapin, who was harshly criticized by Prigozhin and the leader of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, as the chief of the General Staff of the Russian Ground Forces in early October. .

In late October, Putin is believed to have removed Lapin from the position of head of the military district he commanded.

On January 11, just one day after his appointment as Chief of the General Staff of the Ground Forces was announced, Russian state news agencies reported that Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of all Russian Armed Forces, had been appointed commander. Commander of the invasion force.

Gerasimov was another Russian general criticized by Kadyrov and Prigozhin after Ukrainian forces recaptured the strategic city of Liman just a day after Putin triumphantly announced in Moscow the annexation of occupied Ukrainian territories.

“Such reforms and appointments mark an important turning point in the Kremlin’s efforts to reform its conventional armed forces and de-emphasize short-term firefighting efforts that have included the use of irregular formations on the front lines,” the ISW assessment said.

The main events related to the war in Ukraine according to ISV materials

• State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin made incredulous threats about nuclear escalation as part of a disinformation campaign aimed at dissuading the West from providing military aid to Ukraine. ISW continues to assess that Russia is unlikely to use its nuclear weapons in Ukraine and unlikely to use them against the West;

• military bloggers in Russia continue to discuss a possible major Russian or Ukrainian offensive, speculating which areas will be priority targets;

• On Sunday, Russian troops continued a series of counterattacks with the aim of recapturing lost positions at the Svatove-Kreminna border;

• Russian sources claim that Ukrainian troops hit an industrial facility in Kadiivka, Luhansk region, with HIMARS missiles;

• Russian troops continued offensive actions in the areas of the cities of Bakhmut and Avdiyivka;

• Russian sources claim that on Sunday, the country’s troops continued offensive actions in two directions in the Zaporizhzhia region, and the main efforts were directed in the direction of the cities of Guleypole and Orihiv. However, Ukraine declares that Russian troops are not conducting large-scale operations in the direction of Zaporizhzhia;

• the Russian occupying forces continue to requisition some objects and buildings (for example, hospitals) belonging to the civilian infrastructure, creating a threat to the safety and health of the civilian population.

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