OUR Hellas it is the only country among 81 countries that is estimated to spending on an aging populationwhich at least shows that the insurance reform carried out within the framework of the memorandums will bear fruit in the long term.

However, this is not sufficient on its own, as the data do not show that the reduction in spending on an aging population is associated with population growth and therefore an increase in the number of people who will belong to productive age. Greece’s population is expected to drop to 9 million by 2060 from 10.43 million in 2021. official ELSTAT censusand the elderly dependency ratio will jump to 67.3, meaning that there will be more than one adult (1.48, to be exact) of working age 20-64 for every elderly person aged 65 and over in the country.

The above estimates are included in a study by S&P Global titled “Global aging 2023: the clock is ticking” (translated as “Global Aging 2023: The Clock is Striking”) and includes estimates of the amount of spending associated with population aging through 2060 and, of course, the implications for GDP and public debt.

Despite cutting spending on an aging population, the “equation” is not working because of the demographic problem.

Therefore, according to the study above, the cost of population aging in Greece is projected to decline from 19.7% of GDP in 2022 to 19.5% of GDP by 2060 by 2060. In fact, it is the only country among 81 countries. considered in the study (since the population of these countries is 4/5 of the world’s population), which provides for a reduction in this category of expenditure, at least by 0.2 percentage points. This reduction is due to a reduction in pension spending from 15% of GDP to 12% of GDP, while healthcare spending is projected to increase from 4.6% to 6.1% of GDP by 2060, and for long-term care from 0.20 % in 2022 to 1.3% of GDP in 2060.

What does the above mean? First of all, despite the reduction in spending on pensions, they are projected to remain a very large percentage of total spending on population aging, namely 61.5%, with healthcare spending around 32% and the rest on long-term care. Combined with a bleak assessment of population aging, this means a poor quality of life for older people and an even weaker welfare state than today.

It could be argued that the aforementioned low spending levels do not necessarily mean less money in absolute terms for pensions and aged care. This, of course, implies an increase in the denominator, in this case GDP. The equation, however, does not work if estimates of a country’s growing demographic problem are confirmed, since the projected high old-age dependency ratio points to a country that cannot actually be productive and therefore have a competitive economy. Especially, in fact, when the aging of the population is predicted in Western and Northern Europe, but with less intensity than in Greece.