Ukraine’s military intelligence service said Russia is to order the mobilization of up to 500,000 conscripts in January, up from the 300,000 it called for in October, another clear sign that Vladimir Putin has no intention of ending the war, reports The Guardian.

Vadym Skibitskyi, the deputy head of the Main Directorate of Military Intelligence of Ukraine, said that Ukraine believes that the recruits will be involved in a series of Russian offensive operations in the spring and summer in the east and south of the country.

Russia denies it is preparing a second wave of mobilization, and last month Putin said it was “nonsense” to talk about a new draft, claiming that only half of those already mobilized had been sent to Ukraine.

Russian officials, including Putin, previously denied plans to order mobilization before finally announcing a “partial mobilization” in September.

Ukraine’s warning of further mobilization came as Russia announced a ceasefire on Orthodox Christmas.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said on Friday that its forces began observing a ceasefire “along the entire contact line” at noon Moscow time, accusing Ukraine of continuing to shell populated areas and military positions.

Despite warnings of airstrikes in regions of Ukraine, Ukrainian officials have not reported any serious airstrikes since the ceasefire began.

But there were signs of localized Russian attacks. Citing eyewitness accounts in the Russian-controlled regional center of Donetsk, Reuters reported that artillery fire was launched from Russian positions on the outskirts of the city after the ceasefire was due to take effect.

Denis Pusilin, Russia’s designated leader in Donetsk, said late Thursday that Putin’s order was only for offensive operations and that his forces would retaliate if fired upon.

A few hours before the ceasefire announcement, Russian rockets hit a residential building in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk, destroying 14 buildings, the mayor said, adding that there were no casualties.

The governor of the Luhansk region, Serhii Gaidai, said on Friday that during the first three hours of the “ceasefire” Russia “opened fire 14 times.”

Russia will almost double its pre-war military strength

Ukrainians expect Russia to mobilize more people than in the September campaign, which proved highly unpopular and sparked protests across Russia.

If the estimate turns out to be correct, Russia will almost double its pre-war strength in a few months.

The military intelligence of Ukraine stated that 280,000 Russian ground troops are currently deployed against Ukraine.

Skibitsky said it would take Russia about two months to form military formations and that any Russian success on the battlefield would depend on how well equipped and trained the Russians were.

According to him, a lot will depend on the continued supply of Western ammunition and weapons to Ukraine to equip the new reserve units that Ukraine is preparing.

“If Russia loses this time, then Putin will collapse,” Skibitsky said, describing the next six to eight months as his final push. According to him, Ukraine expects that the last wave of mobilization will be announced on January 15, after the winter holidays in Russia. “They focus on the number of people and equipment and hope to overwhelm us,” he added.

Even Russian military bloggers predict a new mobilization, although the authorities deny this

Andriy Gurulyov, a retired Russian colonel general and State Duma deputy, said on Wednesday that there were “no reasons or conditions” for Moscow to announce a second mobilization within the next six months.

“Not everyone who was mobilized earlier was sent to battle,” Gurulyov told Russian media, referring to the tens of thousands of conscripts at military training.

Contrary to the official line, some nationalist pro-war bloggers who have gained influence in recent months said Russia had no choice but to announce a new mobilization soon.

Igor Strelkov, an ultra-nationalist Russian commentator and former intelligence officer, predicted that Moscow would announce mobilization next month.

“There will be a second wave of mobilization. It will be necessary to make a second, and maybe even a third wave. To win in Ukraine, we will have to call up at least half a million more soldiers,” Strelkov said, adding that a new mobilization campaign will take place at the end of February, on the anniversary of the start of the war.

“We expect that they will conduct offensive actions in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, as well as, possibly, in Zaporizhzhia, as well as defend Kherson and Crimea. This is the number of people they will need for such a task,” Skibitskyi said, referring to the half a million people who will be mobilized.

Will there be a new Russian offensive from Belarus or not?

In December, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov and Army Chief Valery Zaluzhny announced that Russia would attack again from Belarus next February. Instead, Ukrainian military intelligence stated that it assessed the probability of an attack by Belarus as low.

According to Skibitskyi, Russia has only one unit with about 15,000 employees in Belarus. Last February, they had 45,000 and could not take Kyiv, although Ukraine was not ready, he said. Currently, Ukraine’s northern defense positions are strong, and Ukraine was ready, Skibitskyi said. The Guardian spent New Year’s Eve at the border in the Sumy region of northeastern Ukraine, where local defense forces echoed the same sentiments.

“Of course, this can change if Belarus enters the war,” Skibitsky said. The military forces of Belarus amount to about 45,000.

Russia will have troops, but will the problems change?

US military expert Rob Lee says that just because Russia has the people doesn’t automatically mean its units will be effective – leadership, ammunition and training are all problems for the Russian military right now. How well Russia will be able to integrate the newly mobilized forces remains an open question, Lee said.

“If you mobilize 500,000 men, those problems won’t go away, you’ll have about the same problems and just more troops,” Lee said, noting that less well-trained troops are better for defending territory than for offensive operations.

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