​Last year, we all had the opportunity to watch the almost flawless progress of the Artemis-1 mission live on the Internet: we could see real-time images transmitted by a mounting camera on one of the solar panels of the Orion capsule, which reached lunar orbit, and then safely returned to Earth.

We also saw live multiple launch attempts of the colossal SLS rocket, whose engines make it the most powerful rocket ever built. However, the US is still a long way from a new satellite, and some voices suggest that it should hurry because China is behind.

It is true that China is also targeting the moon. It is also true that in recent years we have witnessed outstanding Chinese achievements in space exploration: the Chang’E-5 robotic probe that brought back samples of lunar soil, the first since the Soviet Luna-24 mission in 1976. , two rovers on the moon at the same time (Yutu and Yutu-2, the second on the far side of the moon), and a robotic Mars mission that is going great so far (although the Zhurong rover, which was supposed to wake up from hibernation in December, hasn’t shown any signs yet) .

In recent years, China has assembled a working space station

In recent years, China has assembled an operational space station, a remarkable achievement, and its fleet of launch vehicles continues to launch satellites almost weekly (if it weren’t for SpaceX, China would definitely dominate the orbital launch rankings). As a parenthesis, China’s space station itself could be a brake on progress toward the Moon, as it would lock up the space program’s resources in low Earth orbit for years in lieu of the overall lunar effort.

But to send a crew to the moon, China needs some things it doesn’t already have. Of course, he can create them, and he is doing it while you read these lines, but there are things that take time and cost: not only money, but also time, resources, know-how (which China does not have) and .. lucky

To deliver a crew to the moon, a rocket of the super-heavy class is needed

First, a manned mission to the moon requires a super-heavy rocket. That is, a rocket similar to Saturn V, N-1, SLS or Starship. China has an impressive portfolio of active orbital missiles: at least 15 variants operated by a state-owned company, as well as about 10 smaller launchers by more or less private companies. But none of them is capable of sending a crewed capsule to the moon: crewed capsules are complex, large and heavy, and they need powerful launchers.

That will change around 2030, when China plans to have two super-heavy launchers on launch pads: the Changzheng-9 (similar to the SLS) and the Changzheng-5DY (a derivative of the current Changzheng-5 rocket, but with higher performance). SLS demonstrated how difficult it is to develop such a rocket: although it was built using already existing technology (it is mainly assembled from already existing and tested elements), it still cost more than expected, and the launch of the rocket was postponed several times.

China does not yet have the necessary technology

China does not have on hand already tested boosters or engines that have already passed several dozen active flights, and therefore will have to develop new engines that can send a rocket and a capsule to the moon. Build them, test them, use them in several test flights. And this goes on for years.

And we come to the second point, the capsule where the taikonauts will live. It does not currently exist and will need to be tested when it is created. Let me remind you that the first flight of the Orion capsule into space took place in 2014, 8 years before the Artemis-1 mission, given that NASA has extensive experience with lunar capsules (from the Apollo program) or hypersonic flights into the atmosphere (space shuttle).

In addition to the rocket and capsule, to get to the moon, you also need a landing module, that is, an apparatus that descends from the orbit of the moon to its surface. In the entire history of mankind, there was only one lander on the moon, the one from the Apollo program. The USSR never had time to build it, SpaceX has promised to build it, and a consortium of companies led by Blue Origin will probably try to do it in the coming years. And to get out of the lander, taikonauts will need spacesuits that will allow them to walk on the moon. But let’s just say that of all the items listed so far, the spacesuits are probably the least of the problems.

The Apollo program was successful because the US was lucky

And we come to the last point that cannot be neglected: good luck. The Apollo program was successful because the US was lucky. Their luck was also the failure of the USSR, the death of Sergei Korolev, the mastermind of the Soviet space program, led to the total collapse of the entire program, which manifested itself in four failed launches of the H-1 mega rocket and, ultimately, the suspension of its development.

The US luck was also ironic: the Apollo 1 tragedy happened just at the right time when NASA was able to regroup and fix the problems with the Apollo capsule. Had it not happened in 1967, a tragedy similar to that of Apollo 1 would probably have occurred later, during one of the pre-landing missions, in which case it is hard to believe that the landing could have happened in 1969 if it never happened again.

I am convinced that taikonauts will walk on the moon. They will definitely do it before the cosmonauts (Russia, unfortunately, now has other priorities), but I don’t think they will do it before the American astronauts. Because the path to the Moon will always be difficult, marked by failures (and even tragedies).

And the US has already started this path to the moon, paved by the Apollo missions, and already has a significant advantage, while China has to forge its own path, without a dynamic private sector (that NASA can rely on for the adventure). My bet? The first American astronauts will go to the moon by 2030, and the first taikonauts will reach the moon no earlier than 2035.

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