About 8,000 business executives polled quarterly by the National Institute for Statistics estimate that between January and February 2023 we will see relative stability in activity and employment in manufacturing, retail trade and services, but also sharp price increases in retail trade and construction, despite to the natural reduction of activity in this sector.

The short-term balance indicates the perception of the managers of the enterprise of the dynamics of the phenomenon, which should NOT be confused with the rate of growth or decrease of any statistical indicator produced by the INS.

The percentage cyclical balance is the difference between the percentage of managers who chose the positive option of the phenomenon, and the percentage of those who indicated the negative option.

Manufacturing industry

In the cyclical survey from December 2022, the heads of the manufacturing industry forecast relative stability of production volumes for the next three months (cyclical balance -4%).

Regarding the number of employees, relative stability is estimated, the short-term balance is -1% for the total industry.

In the next three months, an increase in prices for industrial products is predicted (short-term balance +34%).

construction

According to estimates for December 2022, a decrease in production volumes will be recorded in construction activity over the next three months (short-term balance -24%).

Managers estimate a moderate decrease in the number of employees (short-term balance -11%).

As for prices for construction works, their increase is expected (current balance +36%).

Retail

In the retail trade sector, managers estimated the trend of relative stability of economic activity for the next three months (short-term balance -2%). The volume of orders to suppliers of goods by commercial divisions will record relative stability (short-term balance -3%).

Employers predict relative stability in the number of employees for the next three months (short-term balance +4%).

Managers of commercial companies estimate a sharp increase in retail prices (short-term balance +43%).

Services

According to estimates from December 2022, demand for services (turnover) will register relative stability in the next three months (short-term balance -3%). The relative stability of the number of employees is estimated (short-term balance -2%).

According to the managers, the sales or payment prices of services will have an upward trend (current balance +24%).

Methodology:

The following threshold values ​​for the interpretation of short-term balances were agreed (set):

up to ± 5% relative stability;

from ± 6% to ±15% moderate increase, respectively moderate decrease;

from ±16% to ±40% increase, respectively decrease;

more than ±40% sharp increase, correspondingly sharp decrease.

Current balances are calculated on the basis of data processed and aggregated according to CAEN. Rev2.

The survey was conducted on the basis of representative samples in the sphere of processing industry (2296 economic entities), construction (1359), retail trade (2575) and services (2912). The sample size was set so that the maximum allowable error of estimation was ±5% at the overall sector level.

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