It’s getting harder for him Ukrainian army the return of territory to the Russian troops, who are strengthening and learning from their mistakes, avoiding dangerous offensives.

According American officialsthe Ukrainian military – with significant American support – defeated the Russians, repelled the attack, and recaptured the only regional capital that had been captured Russians.

However, the tide of the war is expected to change as the Russian army strengthens and pushes reinforcements to the front lines. These factors reinforce the stalemate of the second year of the war. “It’s much easier for her. Ukraine defend the territory he owns and avoid an offensive strategy. To do this, we need to provide Ukrainians with equipment and training,” said Evelyn Farkas, a former Pentagon official and Russia expert.

While the Ukrainian army has consistently proved more effective than the Russian one, Ukrainian officials have warned of the risk of a major Russian offensive. However, Western analysts insist that Russia does not currently have the necessary troops for such an operation.

Focus on Kherson

The Russian army is learning from its mistakes and is preparing for a static war, strengthening its position on the southern front.

Ukrainian forces are sending more forces into the Kherson region, while US officials say Kyiv will not invade Crimea, preferring instead sabotage operations such as the Kerch Bridge sabotage. The Ukrainians believe that if they relieve pressure on the southern front, the Russian army will seize the opportunity to transfer forces to other, less protected fronts.

Ukraine remains dependent on American intelligence to point out the weakest points in the Russian military. The Ukrainian counter-offensive near Kharkov in September succeeded because the Ukrainians faced unprepared Russian troops.

New strategy

However, US officials believe the Kremlin is learning from its mistakes on the battlefield. Putin has appointed a new Russian commander, General Sergei Surovykin, who manages complex operations more effectively than his predecessors. In recent weeks, Ukrainian officials have acknowledged that airstrikes against their supply lines have intensified, resulting in increased casualties among the Ukrainian military.

The Russian army is now digging trenches and building fortifications at strategically important points. The retreat from Kherson is a good example of the lessons learned by the Russian army. Although Putin initially dismissed any prospect of a rollback, General Surovikin persisted until he broke the president’s resistance. The retreat allowed the Russian troops to use the Dnieper River as a natural fortification. The operation was carried out with a professionalism that the Russian army had not yet demonstrated in the war.

Surovikin has been implementing a defensive strategy since October and managed to restore discipline in the ranks of the army. “He is fortifying his position and building a network of trenches, as well as fortified positions and roadblocks,” explains Dara Masikov, an analyst at the RAND Institute.