Turkish attacks on Syria – beginning with Kobani- against the Kurds, which began on November 19 and continued yesterday through an operation that the Turks called “Forked Sword”was for most experts “the time of predicted death”.

Talking to the “K”, oh Manos KaragiannisAssociate Professor of the Department of International Security Royal The College of London and the University of Macedonia say this is one of the few cases where Kurdish targets have been simultaneously attacked in both northern Syria and northern Iraq. As he notes, “We must therefore ask why, at this stage, the Turkish leadership decides to launch so many airstrikes on the positions of Kurdish organizations, given that their armed actions against Turkey have been significantly reduced in recent years.”

According to him, naturally, the Turkish argument is centered on the attack on Istanbul. Ankara claimed that it acted on the basis of Article 51 of the UN Charter, which states that every country has the right to self-defense.

But the reality is, according to Mr. Karagiannis that we can’t know for sure What happened Istiklal. And as he explains: “In any case, the Turkish authorities … sought to make arrests very quickly and complete the investigation of the perpetrators just as quickly. Many conclusions can be drawn from this hasty reaction. Note also that the Kurds have no tradition of blindly hitting the markets. So the attacks are connected against the most likely scenario is mainly with internal events in Turkey, i.e. with the upcoming elections.

“internalization» Turkey’s foreign policy and correlations with Greece

OUR TO. Karagiannis recalls that similar attacks took place five years ago, during the 2018 elections. Then, a few months before the elections, the Turkish leadership againinstrumentalize” Kurdish problem. In January 2018, the Turkish military launched an offensive in northern Syria against Kurdish-held cities such as Afrin. In March of the same year, the Turks captured the city, and the following month Erdogan early elections are scheduled, with which, finally, was elected chairman.

“Then it’s clear there is”internalization“Turkey’s foreign policy in the context of the upcoming elections”, notes TO. Karagiannisbut emphasizing that its subject Greece- recalls what the day after the attack on IstiklalMinister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey indirectly but clearly accused Greece of being a haven for those who want to harm the Turkish mode– he received totally different dynamics.

He explains that targeting Greece, it happens anyway otherwise and firmly, and this is a question that all Turkish political forces agree on. “Thus, at this stage, the Greek question cannot contribute much to the solution AKP” He says TO. Karagiannis and adds: “On the contrary, the demonstration of fists against the Kurds includes anti-terrorism rhetoric, which can find a lot easy to hear ears inside Turkey. Let’s not forget that the issue of the Kurdish armed struggle has been haunting Turkey’s political life for decades. This is a narrative, that is, capable of rallying many voters.”

Messages to the USA and the scenario of a generalized strike on the territory of Syria

With the exception of “interior consumption”, terrorist attacks in Turkey send another message in USA. As explained TO. Karagiannisthis is his burning desire Erdogan and he announced it at the UN headquarters in New York, the establishment of a security zone in northern Syria. However, this failed, mainly because of the very strong objections of the Americans.

Given the strong presence of American troops in northwestern Syria and the close cooperation between the Americans and the Syrian Kurds, it is very difficult and risky for the Turks to start ground operations there. “I believe that the scenario of a new Turkish invasion of Syria with the aim of occupying additional territories is unlikely, I cannot completely exclude it,” notes TO. Karagiannisexplaining that the Kurds are currently her only ally Washington in the fight against radical Islamist organizations in Syria and Iraq.

ConsequentlyTurkish attacks undermine the request for modernization of Turkish F16s.. This was also shown by the first reactions of important members of Congress, who condemned the Turkish attacks. “However, it is of great interest that most of the reports in the Turkish press characterize the Americans as the moral culprits of the terrorist attack in Istanbul,” says TO .Karagiannis and emphasizes that Ankara’s attacks could send a message of determination to the government Bidenbut in fact they are probably more harmful American Turkish relations.

The only sure thing, according to the professor, is that Erdogan decided to rally the electorate with the conductor of foreign and defense policy on the way to the elections, given that the country’s economy is facing structural problems. “OUR Erdogan wants to put on a show of force and invests in creating internal and external enemies, invests towards anti-Americanism, anti-Greekism and anti-Europeanism. All this “mobilizes” the base instincts of the electorate. body, who is traditionally prone to such nationalist chants,” concludes o TO. Karagiannis.